diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 688a3fd..678297b 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -179,3 +179,27 @@ A:编辑 `js/theme.js` 的 `PALETTE` 对象,所有图表自动同步。 ## 许可 本项目代码采用 MIT 协议,数据仅供示例。 + +## 估值工具 + +左侧选择「估值工具」,打开「目标收益反推增长率」Tab。支持反推所需归母利润年复合增长率、计算预期年化 IRR、反推最高买入价;可调整安全边际、股息、股本变化率、基期和币种汇率。参数自动保存在当前浏览器,点击「恢复示例参数」可重置。 + +入口:`#/valuation-tools/stock-return-valuation`。默认数字是教学情景假设,不是实时行情或财报。计算口径来自 `stock-return-valuation` 技能 v1.2.0,浏览器引擎位于 `js/tools/stock-return-math.js`,界面位于 `js/tools/stock-return-calculator.js` 和同名 HTML 模板。 + +单独运行估值检查:`npm run test:valuation`;`npm test` 同时运行图表回归与估值检查。 + +「DCF 估值」Tab(`#/valuation-tools/dcf`)采用分段工作台,可设置 1—5 个增长阶段,每段输入年数与现金流年增长率,总预测期不超过 30 年。支持 FCFF/WACC 与 FCFE/股权资本成本两种口径、永续增长终值、股权价值调整和逐年折现明细。 + +总股本在基础参数区单独填写,单位为亿股;每股价值 = 股权价值(亿元)÷ 当前总股本(亿股)。每家公司的股本、股本日期、现金流和增长假设独立保存在当前浏览器,也可新增公司。真实公司初次使用时,现金流与股本留空,需自行核实后填写;教学示例的 10 亿股仅为假设。当前模型使用人民币金额与预测期内不变的股本。 + +公司以按钮形式展示,点击即可切换;当前股价、股价日期和区间阈值也按公司自动保存到 LocalStorage,兼容原有 DCF 本地记录。股价需要手动输入,不自动请求行情。未填或填错股价不影响已完成的 DCF 计算,也不会保留上次股价标记。 + +ECharts 区间图以 DCF 每股价值为基准,默认低于其 80% 为低估、高于其 120% 为高估,两端边界均包含在合理区间内。「区间设置」可分别修改低估折价(同时作为安全边际)与高估溢价阈值。这是当前假设下的自定义价格分区,不是独立的投资结论;无正股权价值时不显示区间。 + +「目标收益交叉验证」共用当前公司的股价、股本、基期和 DCF 参考价。输入独立的归母净利润及预计利润增速后,可比较现价、DCF 含安全边际参考价两种买入情景的所需利润 CAGR 与预计 IRR,并查看悲观/基准/乐观退出 PE 情景。计算复用独立「目标收益反推增长率」工具的数学引擎。 + +首屏顶部并列展示当前股价、按现价计算的预计年化 IRR、达到目标收益所需的利润年增速;后两项采用基准退出 PE,与下方现价情景结果同步。修改参数或切换公司后即时更新,参数不完整或无效时清除旧值。 + +FCFE 模式可选择以用户提供的基期现金转化率(FCFE ÷ 归母净利润)估算利润;该值会明确标注为估算,不作为独立财报验证。FCFF 模式要求单独填写归母净利润。真实公司的利润、转化率和预计利润增速默认留空,新增验证参数仍按公司保存在原有 LocalStorage 记录中。 + +双买入价格表按各自实际买入价反推增速及计算 IRR,不额外叠加安全边际。「共同参考买入上限」取 DCF 参考价和目标收益模型参考价的较低值,两边各应用一次安全边际。分红按独立路径计算;交叉验证中的股本变化仅影响收益模型,DCF 仍采用固定股本假设。验证参数缺失或无效时只隐藏验证结果,不影响有效的 DCF 结果。 diff --git a/css/dcf.css b/css/dcf.css new file mode 100644 index 0000000..63d76df --- /dev/null +++ b/css/dcf.css @@ -0,0 +1,984 @@ +/* Share the application palette; keep semantic valuation bands subdued. */ +.dcf-calculator { + --df-bg:var(--surface); + --df-paper:var(--surface); + --df-ink:var(--ink); + --df-muted:#75716c; + --df-line:var(--line); + --df-accent:var(--accent); + --df-soft:var(--accent-soft); + --df-field:#faf9f7; + --df-accent-line:#d7c7b6; + --df-chart-secondary:#cbbba9; + --df-error:#a63f32; + --df-error-bg:#fff1ee; + --df-low:#e8ece5; + --df-fair:#eee9df; + --df-high:#eee5e1; + --df-good:#64715e; + --df-fair-ink:#786950; + --df-high-ink:#866d65; + --df-warning-bg:#f6f2eb; + background:var(--df-bg); + border:1px solid var(--df-line); + color:var(--df-ink); + border-radius:16px; + grid-template-columns:minmax(0,1fr); + gap:20px; + padding:28px; + font-size:13px; + line-height:1.6; + display:grid} +.dcf-calculator * { + box-sizing:border-box} +.dcf-calculator>* { + min-width:0} +.dcf-calculator [hidden] { + display:none!important} +.dcf-calculator h2 { + letter-spacing:-.8px; + margin:4px 0 5px; + font-size:27px; + font-weight:600; + line-height:1.5} +.dcf-calculator h3 { + margin:0; + font-size:14px; + font-weight:600} +.dcf-calculator p { + margin:0} +.dcf-calculator .df-muted { + color:var(--df-muted); + font-size:11px; + line-height:1.7} +.dcf-calculator .df-eyebrow { + letter-spacing:1.5px; + color:var(--df-accent); + font-size:10px; + font-weight:600} +.dcf-calculator .df-eyebrow span { + color:var(--df-muted); + letter-spacing:.5px; + font-weight:400} +.dcf-calculator .df-header { + justify-content:space-between; + align-items:center; + gap:16px; + display:flex} +.dcf-calculator .df-subtitle { + color:var(--df-muted); + font-size:12px} +.dcf-calculator .df-header-mark { + color:var(--df-muted); + white-space:nowrap; + font-size:11px} +.dcf-calculator .df-header-actions { + display:flex; + align-items:center; + flex-shrink:0; + gap:12px} +.dcf-calculator .df-help-trigger { + display:grid; + place-items:center; + width:34px; + height:34px; + padding:0; + color:var(--df-muted); + border-radius:50%} +.dcf-calculator .df-help-trigger:hover { + color:var(--df-accent)} +.dcf-calculator .df-help-dialog { + width:min(860px,calc(100% - 32px)); + max-width:none; + max-height:calc(100vh - 32px); + max-height:calc(100dvh - 32px); + margin:auto; + padding:0; + border:1px solid var(--df-line); + border-radius:12px; + background:var(--df-paper); + color:var(--df-ink); + box-shadow:0 18px 60px rgb(51 51 51 / 15%); + overflow:hidden} +.dcf-calculator .df-help-dialog[open] { + display:flex; + flex-direction:column} +.dcf-calculator .df-help-dialog::backdrop { + background:rgb(51 51 51 / 35%)} +.dcf-calculator .df-help-head { + display:flex; + align-items:center; + justify-content:space-between; + gap:16px; + padding:20px 24px 16px; + border-bottom:1px solid var(--df-line)} +.dcf-calculator .df-help-head h2 { + margin:0 0 4px; + font-size:20px; + letter-spacing:0} +.dcf-calculator .df-help-close { + flex-shrink:0; + width:32px; + height:32px; + padding:0; + font-size:22px; + line-height:1; + color:var(--df-muted)} +.dcf-calculator .df-help-nav { + display:flex; + flex-shrink:0; + flex-wrap:wrap; + gap:8px; + padding:12px 24px; + border-bottom:1px solid var(--df-line); + background:var(--df-field)} +.dcf-calculator .df-help-body { + min-height:0; + overflow-y:auto; + overscroll-behavior:contain; + padding:20px 24px 24px; + font-size:13px; + line-height:1.85} +.dcf-calculator .df-help-lead { + padding:14px 16px; + background:var(--df-soft); + border-radius:7px} +.dcf-calculator .df-help-body section { + padding-top:24px; + outline-offset:-2px} +.dcf-calculator .df-help-body h3 { + margin-bottom:10px; + color:var(--df-accent); + font-size:15px} +.dcf-calculator .df-help-body section p+p { + margin-top:10px} +.dcf-calculator .df-help-formula { + margin:12px 0; + padding:12px 14px; + border-left:3px solid var(--df-accent-line); + background:var(--df-field); + font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; + overflow-wrap:anywhere} +.dcf-calculator .df-help-table { + margin:12px 0; + overflow-x:auto} +.dcf-calculator .df-help-table table { + font-size:12px; + white-space:normal} +.dcf-calculator .df-help-table :is(th,td) { + padding:10px; + text-align:left} +.dcf-calculator .df-help-source { + margin-top:24px; + padding-top:14px; + border-top:1px solid var(--df-line); + font-size:11px; + color:var(--df-muted)} +.dcf-calculator .df-help-source a { + color:var(--df-accent); + text-underline-offset:3px} +@media (width<=680px) { + .dcf-calculator .df-header-actions {gap:6px} + .dcf-calculator .df-help-head {padding:16px} + .dcf-calculator .df-help-nav {padding:12px 16px;gap:6px} + .dcf-calculator .df-help-body {padding:16px} + .dcf-calculator .df-help-table :is(th,td) {padding:8px 6px} +} +.dcf-calculator .df-live-dot { + background:var(--df-accent); + border-radius:50%; + width:6px; + height:6px; + margin-right:7px; + display:inline-block} +.dcf-calculator button { + font:inherit; + border:1px solid var(--df-line); + background:var(--df-paper); + color:var(--df-accent); + cursor:pointer; + border-radius:7px; + padding:7px 11px; + font-size:11px; + transition:background .15s,border-color .15s} +.dcf-calculator button:hover { + background:var(--df-soft); + border-color:var(--df-accent-line)} +.dcf-calculator button:disabled { + opacity:.4; + cursor:default} +.dcf-calculator :is(input,select,button,summary):focus-visible { + outline-offset:3px; + outline:2px solid var(--df-accent)} +.dcf-calculator [data-section] { + scroll-margin-top:88px} +.dcf-calculator [data-section]:focus { + outline:none} +.dcf-calculator label { + color:var(--df-ink); + align-content:start; + gap:6px; + min-width:0; + font-size:11px; + display:grid} +.dcf-calculator input,.dcf-calculator select { + border:1px solid var(--df-line); + background:var(--df-field); + width:100%; + min-width:0; + height:39px; + color:var(--df-ink); + font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; + border-radius:6px; + padding:8px 10px; + font-family:inherit; + font-size:13px} +.dcf-calculator input:focus,.dcf-calculator select:focus { + border-color:var(--df-accent); + background:var(--df-paper)} +.dcf-calculator input::placeholder { + color:var(--muted); + font-size:11px} +.dcf-calculator .df-profile-bar { + flex-wrap:wrap; + align-items:center; + gap:8px; + display:flex} +.dcf-calculator .df-company-buttons { + flex-wrap:wrap; + gap:6px; + min-width:0; + display:flex} +.dcf-calculator .df-company-buttons button { + color:var(--df-muted); + overflow-wrap:anywhere; + max-width:100%; + padding:7px 13px} +.dcf-calculator .df-company-buttons button[aria-pressed=true] { + background:var(--df-soft); + border-color:var(--df-accent-line); + color:var(--df-accent); + font-weight:600} +.dcf-calculator [data-new-company] { + background:0 0; + border-style:dashed} +.dcf-calculator .df-save-status { + color:var(--df-muted); + margin-left:auto; + font-size:10px} +.dcf-calculator .df-new-company { + flex-wrap:wrap; + align-items:end; + gap:10px; + display:flex} +.dcf-calculator .df-new-company label { + flex:1; + min-width:160px} +.dcf-calculator .df-jumpnav { + border-top:1px solid var(--df-line); + flex-wrap:wrap; + gap:24px; + padding-top:12px; + display:flex} +.dcf-calculator .df-jumpnav button { + color:var(--df-muted); + background:0 0; + border:0; + padding:0; + font-size:11px} +.dcf-calculator .df-jumpnav button:first-child { + color:var(--df-accent); + font-weight:600} +.dcf-calculator .df-jumpnav button:hover { + color:var(--df-accent); + text-decoration:underline} +.dcf-calculator .df-overview { + grid-template-columns:minmax(240px,1.05fr) minmax(0,2.2fr); + align-items:stretch; + gap:14px; + display:grid} +.dcf-calculator .df-output { + min-width:0} +.dcf-calculator .df-hero { + color:var(--df-ink); + background:var(--df-soft); + border-radius:11px; + height:100%; + padding:22px 24px} +.dcf-calculator .df-hero .df-muted { + color:var(--df-muted)} +.dcf-calculator .df-number { + letter-spacing:-1.8px; + font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; + overflow-wrap:anywhere; + margin:8px 0 3px; + font-size:45px; + font-weight:500; + line-height:1.25} +.dcf-calculator .df-value-note { + color:var(--df-muted); + border-top:1px solid var(--df-accent-line); + margin-top:16px; + padding-top:12px; + font-size:10px} +.dcf-calculator .df-value-note b { + color:var(--df-accent); + letter-spacing:-.4px; + margin-left:7px; + font-size:19px; + font-weight:500} +.dcf-calculator [data-shares-note] { + margin-top:4px} +.dcf-calculator .df-top-comparison { + border:1px solid var(--df-line); + background:var(--df-paper); + border-radius:11px; + grid-template-columns:repeat(3,minmax(0,1fr)); + gap:0; + padding:22px 0; + display:grid} +.dcf-calculator .df-top-comparison>div { + min-width:0; + padding:0 18px} +.dcf-calculator .df-top-comparison>div+div { + border-left:1px solid var(--df-line)} +.dcf-calculator .df-top-comparison h3 { + color:var(--df-muted); + min-height:36px; + font-size:11px; + font-weight:500} +.dcf-calculator .df-top-return-value,.dcf-calculator .df-market-price { + letter-spacing:-.8px; + font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; + overflow-wrap:anywhere; + font-size:29px; + font-weight:500; + line-height:1.4} +.dcf-calculator .df-top-return-value { + color:var(--df-accent); + margin:5px 0 8px} +.dcf-calculator .df-price-readout { + flex-wrap:wrap; + align-items:baseline; + gap:5px; + margin:5px 0 8px; + display:flex} +.dcf-calculator .df-zone-badge { + white-space:nowrap; + border-radius:4px; + padding:1px 5px; + font-size:10px} +.dcf-calculator .df-zone-badge[data-zone=低估] { + background:var(--df-low); + color:var(--df-good)} +.dcf-calculator .df-zone-badge[data-zone=合理] { + background:var(--df-fair); + color:var(--df-fair-ink)} +.dcf-calculator .df-zone-badge[data-zone=高估] { + background:var(--df-high); + color:var(--df-high-ink)} +.dcf-calculator .df-decision { + background:var(--df-soft); + border:1px solid var(--df-accent-line); + border-radius:9px; + align-items:center; + gap:20px; + padding:13px 17px; + display:flex} +.dcf-calculator .df-decision>div { + flex-wrap:wrap; + align-items:baseline; + gap:7px; + min-width:220px; + display:flex} +.dcf-calculator .df-decision .df-eyebrow { + letter-spacing:0; + font-size:10px} +.dcf-calculator .df-decision strong { + font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; + font-size:23px; + font-weight:500} +.dcf-calculator .df-decision p { + color:var(--df-muted); + flex:1; + font-size:11px} +.dcf-calculator .df-decision button { + white-space:nowrap; + background:0 0; + border:0} +.dcf-calculator .df-decision[data-ok=false] { + background:var(--df-warning-bg); + border-color:var(--df-line)} +.dcf-calculator .df-market { + border:1px solid var(--df-line); + background:var(--df-paper); + border-radius:11px; + padding:20px 22px} +.dcf-calculator .df-market-head { + justify-content:space-between; + align-items:center; + gap:18px; + display:flex} +.dcf-calculator .df-market h3 { + margin:3px 0} +.dcf-calculator .df-price-fields { + grid-template-columns:150px 150px; + gap:10px; + display:grid} +.dcf-calculator .df-price-chart { + width:100%; + min-width:0; + height:180px; + overflow:hidden} +.dcf-calculator .df-zone-keys { + grid-template-columns:repeat(3,minmax(0,1fr)); + gap:12px; + display:grid} +.dcf-calculator .df-zone-key { + background:var(--df-field); + border-radius:5px; + justify-content:space-between; + align-items:center; + gap:8px; + padding:8px 12px; + font-size:10px; + display:flex} +.dcf-calculator .df-zone-key:nth-child(2) { + background:var(--df-field)} +.dcf-calculator .df-zone-key:nth-child(3) { + background:var(--df-field)} +.dcf-calculator .df-zone-key strong { + font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; + font-size:11px; + font-weight:500} +.dcf-calculator .df-zone-dot { + background:var(--df-good); + border-radius:50%; + width:5px; + height:5px; + margin-right:6px; + display:inline-block} +.dcf-calculator .df-zone-key:nth-child(2) .df-zone-dot { + background:var(--df-fair-ink)} +.dcf-calculator .df-zone-key:nth-child(3) .df-zone-dot { + background:var(--df-high-ink)} +.dcf-calculator .df-interval-rule { + border-top:1px solid var(--df-line); + justify-content:space-between; + align-items:start; + gap:16px; + margin-top:14px; + padding-top:12px; + display:flex} +.dcf-calculator .df-interval-rule>span { + font-size:10px} +.dcf-calculator .df-interval-rule details { + border:0; + min-width:90px; + padding:0} +.dcf-calculator .df-interval-fields { + max-width:320px; + margin-top:12px} +.dcf-calculator .df-market-message { + margin-top:12px} +.dcf-calculator .df-layout { + grid-template-columns:minmax(0,1fr) minmax(0,1.25fr); + align-items:start; + gap:20px; + display:grid} +.dcf-calculator .df-form,.dcf-calculator .df-analysis { + border:1px solid var(--df-line); + background:var(--df-paper); + border-radius:11px; + min-width:0; + padding:20px} +.dcf-calculator .df-form { + gap:22px; + display:grid} +.dcf-calculator .df-form>section+section,.dcf-calculator .df-results { + border-top:1px solid var(--df-line); + padding-top:20px} +.dcf-calculator .df-column-heading { + align-items:center; + gap:10px; + display:flex} +.dcf-calculator .df-column-heading>span { + width:29px; + height:29px; + color:var(--df-accent); + border:1px solid var(--df-accent-line); + border-radius:50%; + place-items:center; + font-size:10px; + display:grid} +.dcf-calculator .df-column-heading p { + color:var(--df-muted); + margin-top:2px; + font-size:10px} +.dcf-calculator .df-column-heading>b { + letter-spacing:1px; + color:var(--df-muted); + margin-left:auto; + font-size:10px; + font-weight:500} +.dcf-calculator .df-section-head { + justify-content:space-between; + align-items:center; + gap:10px; + margin-bottom:12px; + display:flex} +.dcf-calculator .df-section-head h3 { + font-size:12px} +.dcf-calculator .df-fields { + grid-template-columns:repeat(2,minmax(0,1fr)); + gap:12px; + display:grid} +.dcf-calculator .df-share-field small { + font-size:10px} +.dcf-calculator .df-stages { + gap:8px; + display:grid} +.dcf-calculator .df-stage-row { + background:var(--df-field); + border:1px solid var(--df-line); + border-radius:7px; + grid-template-columns:minmax(55px,1fr) 65px minmax(70px,1fr) 22px; + align-items:center; + gap:8px; + padding:10px; + display:grid} +.dcf-calculator .df-stage-row input { + background:var(--df-paper); + height:34px; + padding:6px} +.dcf-calculator .df-stage-row button { + color:var(--df-muted); + background:0 0; + border:0; + padding:2px; + font-size:17px} +.dcf-calculator .df-stage-name { + font-size:11px} +.dcf-calculator .df-stage-name small { + color:var(--df-muted); + font-size:9px; + display:block} +.dcf-calculator .df-stage-key { + color:var(--df-muted); + font-size:10px} +.dcf-calculator .df-total { + margin-top:8px; + font-size:10px} +.dcf-calculator .df-result-line { + justify-content:space-between; + align-items:baseline; + gap:10px; + padding:8px 0; + font-size:11px; + display:flex} +.dcf-calculator .df-result-line span { + min-width:0} +.dcf-calculator .df-result-line b { + font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; + white-space:nowrap; + font-weight:500} +.dcf-calculator .df-result-line.df-sum { + border-top:1px solid var(--df-line); + margin-top:4px; + padding-top:10px} +.dcf-calculator .df-composition { + background:var(--df-line); + border-radius:3px; + gap:2px; + height:6px; + margin:15px 0 8px; + display:flex; + overflow:hidden} +.dcf-calculator .df-segment-a { + background:var(--df-accent)} +.dcf-calculator .df-segment-b { + background:var(--df-chart-secondary)} +.dcf-calculator .df-legend { + color:var(--df-muted); + justify-content:space-between; + margin-bottom:4px; + font-size:10px; + display:flex} +.dcf-calculator .df-crosscheck { + min-width:0} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-shared { + background:var(--df-field); + border-radius:5px; + margin:16px 0; + padding:8px 10px; + font-size:10px} +.dcf-calculator details { + border:0; + padding:0} +.dcf-calculator summary { + color:var(--df-accent); + cursor:pointer; + font-size:11px} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-inputs>summary { + margin-bottom:13px} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-inputs>summary span { + margin-left:6px; + font-size:10px} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-grid { + grid-template-columns:minmax(0,1fr) minmax(0,1fr); + align-items:start; + gap:16px; + display:grid} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-grid>* { + min-width:0} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-bridge { + background:var(--df-soft); + border-radius:6px; + gap:10px; + margin-top:12px; + padding:12px; + display:grid} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-derived { + gap:6px; + font-size:11px; + display:grid} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-derived b { + font-size:18px; + font-weight:500} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-profit,.dcf-calculator .df-cross-growth { + margin-top:12px} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-source-note { + margin-top:7px; + font-size:10px} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-pe { + grid-template-columns:repeat(3,minmax(0,1fr)); + gap:6px; + margin-top:12px; + display:grid} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-pe label { + font-size:10px} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-pe input { + padding:8px} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-pe label:nth-child(2) input { + background:var(--df-field); + border-color:var(--df-accent-line)} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-pe-note { + margin-top:10px; + font-size:10px} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-advanced { + border-top:1px solid var(--df-line); + margin-top:16px; + padding-top:13px} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-advanced .df-fields { + grid-template-columns:repeat(3,minmax(0,1fr)); + margin-top:12px} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-results { + gap:22px; + margin-top:22px; + display:grid} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-results>* { + min-width:0} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-joint { + background:var(--df-soft); + border:1px solid var(--df-accent-line); + border-radius:8px; + padding:16px} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-joint-grid { + grid-template-columns:repeat(3,minmax(0,1fr)); + gap:10px; + margin-bottom:10px; + display:grid} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-joint-grid>div { + gap:5px; + font-size:10px; + display:grid} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-joint-grid b { + letter-spacing:-.5px; + font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; + overflow-wrap:anywhere; + font-size:21px; + font-weight:500} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-joint-grid>div:last-child { + color:var(--df-accent); + border-left:1px solid var(--df-accent-line); + padding-left:10px} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-joint .df-muted { + font-size:10px} +.dcf-calculator .df-scenario-grid { + grid-template-columns:repeat(3,minmax(0,1fr)); + gap:8px; + display:grid} +.dcf-calculator .df-scenario-card { + border:1px solid var(--df-line); + background:var(--df-field); + border-radius:7px; + gap:8px; + min-width:0; + padding:12px 10px; + display:grid} +.dcf-calculator .df-scenario-card[data-base=true] { + background:var(--df-soft); + border-color:var(--df-accent-line)} +.dcf-calculator .df-scenario-card>span:first-child { + color:var(--df-muted); + font-size:10px} +.dcf-calculator .df-scenario-card strong { + font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; + letter-spacing:-.8px; + overflow-wrap:anywhere; + font-size:24px; + font-weight:500} +.dcf-calculator .df-scenario-card small { + color:var(--df-muted); + font-size:10px} +.dcf-calculator .df-scenario-status { + color:var(--df-high-ink); + font-size:10px} +.dcf-calculator .df-scenario-card[data-ok=true] .df-scenario-status { + color:var(--df-good)} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-sensitivity .df-section-head { + margin-bottom:0} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-sensitivity th:nth-child(3),.dcf-calculator .df-cross-sensitivity td:nth-child(3) { + background:var(--df-field)} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-prices { + border-top:1px solid var(--df-line); + padding-top:16px} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-prices>.df-section-head { + margin-top:16px} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-checks { + grid-template-columns:repeat(2,minmax(0,1fr)); + gap:10px; + margin-top:16px; + display:grid} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-checks>div { + border:1px solid var(--df-line); + border-radius:6px; + padding:12px; + font-size:11px} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-checks strong { + margin-top:5px; + font-size:11px; + display:block} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-checks p { + margin-top:5px} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-verdict { + color:var(--df-fair-ink); + background:var(--df-warning-bg); + border-radius:6px; + margin-top:12px; + padding:12px; + font-size:11px} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-table-note { + margin-top:10px; + font-size:10px} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-tag { + color:var(--df-fair-ink); + background:var(--df-fair); + border-radius:4px; + padding:2px 6px; + font-size:10px; + display:inline-block} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-tag[data-ok=true] { + background:var(--df-low); + color:var(--df-good)} +.dcf-calculator .df-table-wrap { + max-width:100%; + margin-top:12px; + overflow-x:auto} +.dcf-calculator table { + border-collapse:collapse; + white-space:nowrap; + font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; + width:100%; + font-size:10px} +.dcf-calculator th,.dcf-calculator td { + text-align:right; + border-bottom:1px solid var(--df-line); + padding:10px 8px} +.dcf-calculator th { + color:var(--df-muted); + background:var(--df-field); + font-weight:400} +.dcf-calculator th:first-child,.dcf-calculator td:first-child { + text-align:left} +.dcf-calculator .df-table-section { + border:1px solid var(--df-line); + background:var(--df-paper); + border-radius:9px; + padding:17px 20px} +.dcf-calculator .df-foot { + color:var(--df-muted); + flex-wrap:wrap; + justify-content:space-between; + gap:8px; + font-size:10px; + display:flex} +.dcf-calculator .df-note { + border-top:1px solid var(--df-line); + padding-top:14px; + font-size:10px} +.dcf-calculator .df-error { + color:var(--df-error); + background:var(--df-error-bg); + border:1px solid var(--df-high); + border-radius:7px; + padding:12px 14px; + font-size:12px} +.dcf-calculator .df-warning { + color:var(--df-fair-ink); + background:var(--df-warning-bg); + border-radius:7px; + padding:12px 14px; + font-size:12px} +@media (width>=1500px) { + .tools-layout .content:has(.dcf-calculator) { + max-width:1280px} +} +@media (width<=1200px) { + .dcf-calculator { + padding:22px} +.dcf-calculator .df-overview { + grid-template-columns:1fr} +.dcf-calculator .df-hero { + grid-template-columns:1fr 1fr; + column-gap:20px; + display:grid} +.dcf-calculator .df-hero>.df-muted:first-child { + grid-column:1} +.dcf-calculator .df-number { + grid-area:2/1} +.dcf-calculator .df-hero>.df-muted:nth-child(3) { + grid-column:1} +.dcf-calculator .df-value-note { + border-top:0; + border-left:1px solid var(--df-accent-line); + grid-area:1/2/4; + align-self:center; + margin:0; + padding:10px 0 10px 24px} +.dcf-calculator .df-top-comparison h3 { + min-height:0} +.dcf-calculator .df-layout { + grid-template-columns:1fr} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-grid { + gap:24px} +.dcf-calculator .df-top-comparison { + padding:18px 0} +} +@media (width<=680px) { + .dcf-calculator { + border-radius:10px; + gap:16px; + padding:16px} +.dcf-calculator .df-header-mark { + display:none} +.dcf-calculator h2 { + font-size:24px} +.dcf-calculator .df-save-status { + width:100%; + margin-left:0} +.dcf-calculator .df-jumpnav { + gap:15px} +.dcf-calculator .df-jumpnav button { + font-size:10px} +.dcf-calculator .df-decision { + flex-wrap:wrap; + gap:8px} +.dcf-calculator .df-decision>div { + min-width:0} +.dcf-calculator .df-decision p { + flex:100%; + order:3} +.dcf-calculator .df-decision button { + margin-left:auto} +.dcf-calculator .df-market-head { + flex-wrap:wrap} +.dcf-calculator .df-price-fields { + grid-template-columns:repeat(2,minmax(0,1fr)); + width:100%} +.dcf-calculator .df-market { + padding:16px} +.dcf-calculator .df-zone-key { + gap:3px; + padding:8px; + display:grid} +.dcf-calculator .df-zone-key strong { + font-size:10px} +.dcf-calculator .df-interval-rule { + flex-wrap:wrap} +.dcf-calculator .df-form,.dcf-calculator .df-analysis { + padding:16px} +.dcf-calculator .df-top-comparison>div { + padding:0 12px} +.dcf-calculator .df-top-return-value,.dcf-calculator .df-market-price { + font-size:26px} +} +@media (width<=460px) { + .dcf-calculator .df-hero { + padding:20px; + display:block} +.dcf-calculator .df-value-note { + border-top:1px solid var(--df-accent-line); + border-left:0; + margin-top:16px; + padding:12px 0 0} +.dcf-calculator .df-top-comparison { + grid-template-columns:repeat(2,minmax(0,1fr)); + gap:16px; + padding:16px 0} +.dcf-calculator .df-top-comparison>div:first-child { + border-bottom:1px solid var(--df-line); + grid-column:1/-1; + padding-bottom:12px} +.dcf-calculator .df-top-comparison>div:nth-child(2) { + border-left:0} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-grid { + grid-template-columns:1fr; + gap:16px} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-pe { + gap:10px} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-checks,.dcf-calculator .df-cross-advanced .df-fields { + grid-template-columns:1fr} +.dcf-calculator .df-stage-row { + grid-template-columns:minmax(48px,1fr) 52px minmax(65px,1fr) 20px; + gap:6px; + padding:8px} +.dcf-calculator input,.dcf-calculator select { + font-size:16px} +.dcf-calculator .df-scenario-grid { + gap:6px} +.dcf-calculator .df-scenario-card { + padding:10px 8px} +.dcf-calculator .df-scenario-card strong { + font-size:21px} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-joint-grid { + gap:8px} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-joint-grid b { + font-size:19px} +.dcf-calculator .df-cross-inputs>summary span { + margin-left:14px; + display:block} +} +@media (prefers-reduced-motion:reduce) { + .dcf-calculator * { + transition:none!important} +} + + +/* Annual cash-flow chart remains visible below the collapsible detail table. */ +.dcf-calculator .df-cashflow-section {padding:20px;background:var(--df-paper);border:1px solid var(--df-line);border-radius:11px;min-width:0;} +.dcf-calculator .df-cashflow-section .df-section-head {align-items:start;flex-wrap:wrap;} +.dcf-calculator .df-cashflow-section h3 {margin-bottom:4px;} +.dcf-calculator .df-cashflow-chart {height:320px;width:100%;min-width:0;} +@media(max-width:560px){.dcf-calculator .df-cashflow-section{padding:16px;}.dcf-calculator .df-cashflow-chart{height:280px;}} + +/* Deletion appears only after dwelling on a company for three seconds. */ +.dcf-calculator .df-company-buttons {gap:10px;} +.dcf-calculator .df-company-chip {position:relative;display:inline-flex;min-width:0;max-width:100%;} +.dcf-calculator .df-company-buttons .df-company-delete {position:absolute;top:-7px;right:-7px;display:grid;place-items:center;width:20px;height:20px;padding:0;border:1px solid var(--df-accent-line);border-radius:50%;background:var(--df-paper);color:var(--df-muted);font-size:16px;line-height:1;z-index:1;opacity:0;visibility:hidden;transition:opacity .15s,visibility 0s;} +.dcf-calculator .df-company-chip:is(:hover,:focus-within) .df-company-delete {opacity:1;visibility:visible;transition:opacity .15s 3s,visibility 0s 3s;} +.dcf-calculator .df-company-buttons .df-company-delete:hover {color:var(--df-error);border-color:var(--df-error);background:var(--df-error-bg);} +.dcf-calculator .df-company-empty {padding:28px 20px;border:1px dashed var(--df-line);border-radius:10px;color:var(--df-muted);text-align:center;} +.dcf-calculator[data-empty="true"] :is(.df-jumpnav,.df-overview,.df-decision,.df-market,.df-layout,.df-table-section,.df-cashflow-section,.df-foot,.df-note,.df-error,.df-warning) {display:none!important;} +@media(hover:none){.dcf-calculator .df-company-buttons .df-company-delete{opacity:1;visibility:visible;transition:none;}} +@media(prefers-reduced-motion:reduce) and (hover:hover){.dcf-calculator .df-company-chip:is(:hover,:focus-within) .df-company-delete{transition:visibility 0s 3s!important;}} diff --git a/css/style.css b/css/style.css index dabbac5..c968dbd 100644 --- a/css/style.css +++ b/css/style.css @@ -533,3 +533,53 @@ button { .chart { min-width: 560px; } .card { overflow-x: auto; } } + +/* 估值工具沿用图表页的纸白与棕色主题。 */ +.tools-title { margin-top: 14px; padding-top: 14px; border-top: 1px solid var(--line); } +.app-layout.tools-layout { grid-template-columns: 184px minmax(0, 1fr); } +.tools-layout .content { max-width: 1120px; width: 100%; } +.chart-sidebar[hidden] { display: none; } +.return-calculator { + display: grid; + gap: 22px; + min-width: 0; + padding: 26px; + background: var(--surface); + border: 1px solid var(--line); + border-radius: 10px; +} +.return-calculator [hidden] { display: none !important; } +.return-calculator h2 { margin: 0 0 10px; font-size: 22px; font-weight: 600; } +.return-calculator [data-company] { margin-bottom: 6px; font-size: 13px; color: var(--accent); } +.return-calculator .text-small { font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.8; } +.return-calculator .text-muted { color: #75716c; } +.return-calculator .viz-controls { display: grid; grid-template-columns: repeat(3, minmax(0, 1fr)); gap: 18px 16px; } +.return-calculator .form-label { display: grid; align-content: start; gap: 8px; min-width: 0; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.6; } +.return-calculator .form-control, +.return-calculator .form-select { + width: 100%; min-width: 0; padding: 10px 12px; border: 1px solid var(--line); + border-radius: 6px; background: #faf9f7; color: var(--ink); font: inherit; + font-size: 15px; font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums; +} +.return-calculator .form-control:focus, +.return-calculator .form-select:focus { outline: 2px solid var(--accent-soft); border-color: var(--accent); } +.return-calculator details { padding: 14px 0; border-top: 1px solid var(--line); border-bottom: 1px solid var(--line); } +.return-calculator summary { cursor: pointer; font-size: 13px; color: var(--accent); } +.return-calculator .calc-advanced { padding-top: 20px; } +.return-calculator .calc-actions { display: flex; align-items: center; flex-wrap: wrap; gap: 12px; } +.return-calculator .calc-message { margin: 0; } +.return-calculator .text-destructive { padding: 12px; border-radius: 6px; color: #a63f32; background: #fff1ee; font-size: 13px; } +.return-calculator .calc-section { display: grid; gap: 12px; min-width: 0; } +.return-calculator .viz-grid { display: grid; grid-template-columns: repeat(3, minmax(0, 1fr)); gap: 12px; } +.return-calculator .viz-stat { padding: 18px 14px; border: 1px solid var(--line); box-shadow: none; background: #faf9f7; font-size: 12px; overflow-wrap: anywhere; } +.return-calculator .viz-stat:first-child { background: var(--accent-soft); border-color: var(--accent-soft); } +.return-calculator .viz-stat-value { margin-top: 12px; font-size: clamp(18px, 1.7vw, 26px); font-weight: 600; color: var(--accent); font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums; } +.return-calculator .calc-notes { padding-top: 8px; border-top: 1px solid var(--line); } +.return-calculator .calc-notes p { margin: 8px 0 0; } +@media (max-width: 680px) { + .return-calculator { padding: 20px 16px; gap: 20px; } + .return-calculator h2 { font-size: 20px; } + .return-calculator .viz-controls { grid-template-columns: repeat(2, minmax(0, 1fr)); gap: 16px 12px; } + .return-calculator .viz-grid { grid-template-columns: 1fr; } + .return-calculator .viz-stat-value { font-size: 24px; } +} diff --git a/js/main.js b/js/main.js index 44339c6..c84389e 100644 --- a/js/main.js +++ b/js/main.js @@ -1,6 +1,8 @@ import { loadCSV } from './csv.js'; import { getChartBuilder } from './charts/index.js'; import { downloadCanvas, mergeImages } from './merge.js'; +import { renderStockReturnCalculator, valuationMenu } from './tools/stock-return-calculator.js'; +import { renderDCFCalculator } from './tools/dcf-calculator.js'; import { createAppShell, renderAnchors, @@ -33,6 +35,7 @@ let state; let renderVersion = 0; let cacheToken = Date.now(); let paramTimer; +let disposeTool; function validateManifest(value) { if (!Array.isArray(value?.companies) || value.companies.length === 0) { @@ -89,6 +92,7 @@ function validateControls(companyId, tab) { } function getCompany(companyId) { + if (companyId === valuationMenu.id) return valuationMenu; return manifest.companies.find((company) => company.id === companyId) || manifest.companies[0]; } @@ -402,18 +406,31 @@ function renderCurrent() { const company = getCompany(state.companyId); const tab = getTab(company, state.tabId); const charts = chartsForTab(company, tab); + shell.layout.classList.toggle('tools-layout', company.kind === 'tools'); const version = ++renderVersion; // 整屏重渲染会带上最新参数把图都画一遍,这里再触发一次参数刷新纯属重复劳动 clearTimeout(paramTimer); + disposeTool?.(); + disposeTool = undefined; disposeAll(); - renderCompanies(shell.companyNav, manifest.companies, company.id, (companyId) => { + renderCompanies(shell.companyNav, [...manifest.companies, valuationMenu], company.id, (companyId) => { updateHash({ companyId }); }); renderTabs(shell.tabs, company.tabs, tab.id, (tabId) => { updateHash({ companyId: company.id, tabId }); }); renderTabControls(shell.params, tab.controls, paramValues(company, tab), applyTabParam); + if (company.kind === 'tools') { + if (tab.id === 'dcf') { + disposeTool = renderDCFCalculator(shell.cards, manifest.companies.filter(item => ['ppmt', 'moutai', 'catl'].includes(item.id))); + } else { + renderStockReturnCalculator(shell.cards); + } + shell.chartNav.hidden = true; + return; + } + shell.chartNav.hidden = false; renderCards(shell.cards, charts, activeViews, { onExport: exportPNG, isCarted: (instanceId) => cart.has(instanceId), @@ -467,6 +484,8 @@ window.addEventListener('hashchange', () => { let resizeTimer; window.addEventListener('resize', () => { if (!shell) return; + // Calculator layout is responsive CSS; rebuilding it would interrupt focused inputs. + if (getCompany(state.companyId).kind === 'tools') return; clearTimeout(resizeTimer); resizeTimer = setTimeout(renderCurrent, 200); }); diff --git a/js/tools/dcf-calculator.html b/js/tools/dcf-calculator.html new file mode 100644 index 0000000..615eb57 --- /dev/null +++ b/js/tools/dcf-calculator.html @@ -0,0 +1,99 @@ +
+
VALUATION WORKBENCH / 估值研究

DCF 估值工作台

从现金流价值出发,用盈利增长检验回报。

参数调整 · 即时试算
+
+
+ +每家公司的参数独立保存在本机浏览器 +
+ + + +
DCF 每股内在价值
—
人民币/股 · 当前现金流假设
20% 安全边际参考价 — 元/股
+
+

当前股价

+
—元/股
+
填写当前股价后查看所处区间
+
+

预计年化 IRR

+
—
+
补全交叉验证参数后显示
+
+

目标收益所需利润年增速(含边际)

+
—
+
按现价与基准退出 PE 反推
+
+
+
双模型共同参考上限—元/股

填写当前股价及利润假设,比较现金流价值与目标收益门槛。

+
+
+
PRICE POSITION

现价在估值的什么位置?

以当前 DCF 假设为基准的价格区间
+
+ + +
+
+ + +
请补全现金流与股本后查看估值区间
+ +
+ 区间依据当前 DCF 假设与折溢价阈值划分,不自动获取行情 +
区间设置 +
+ + +
+
+
+
+
+
01

现金流估值

企业能产生多少可分配现金流

DCF
+

基础参数

教学示例 · 人民币
+
+ + + + + + +
+

分段增长率

+
+
+

永续经营与股权换算

+
+ + + + + + +
+

价值拆解 /亿元

预测期现金流现值—
永续终值现值—
企业经营价值—
− 净债务 + 非经营资产 − 少数股东权益—
股权价值—
预测期现金流永续终值
+ +
+
+
+ + + +
逐年现金流与折现明细
年份/阶段增长率自由现金流(亿元)折现因子现值(亿元)
+ + +

净利润不能直接代替自由现金流。FCFF 按 WACC 折现后调整为股权价值,FCFE 按股权资本成本折现。非经营资产不得与净债务中的超额现金重复计入。所有金额使用人民币,股本在预测期内保持不变,终值采用持续经营假设。

+ +
diff --git a/js/tools/dcf-calculator.js b/js/tools/dcf-calculator.js new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2bdd632 --- /dev/null +++ b/js/tools/dcf-calculator.js @@ -0,0 +1,457 @@ +import template from './dcf-calculator.html?raw'; +import '../../css/dcf.css'; +import { calculateDCF, calculateDCFPriceRange, classifyDCFPrice } from './dcf-math.js'; +import { buildDCFPriceOption } from './dcf-price-chart.js'; +import { buildDCFCashflowOption } from './dcf-cashflow-chart.js'; +import crosscheckTemplate from './dcf-crosscheck.html?raw'; +import { createDCFCrosscheck } from './dcf-crosscheck.js'; +import { createDCFHelp } from './dcf-help.js'; + +const STORAGE_KEY = 'smart-fin-chart:dcf:v1'; +let memory; +const defaults = (example = false) => ({basis: 'fcff', fcf: '', year: '2026', shares: '', shareDate: '', + rate: '10', terminal: '2', debt: '0', assets: '0', minority: '0', margin: '20', + premium: '20', marketPrice: '', quoteDate: '', + crossProfitMode: 'manual', crossProfit: example ? '125' : '', crossConversion: example ? '80' : '', + crossProfitGrowth: example ? '8' : '', crossTarget: '13', crossYears: '5', + crossPeLow: '9', crossPe: '12', crossPeHigh: '15', + crossDividend: '0', crossDividendGrowth: '0', crossDilution: '0'}); +const initialStages = () => [{years: '3', growth: '12'}, {years: '4', growth: '8'}, {years: '3', growth: '4'}]; +const profile = (name, example = false) => ({name, + inputs: {...defaults(example), ...(example ? {fcf: '100', shares: '10', debt: '100', marketPrice: '138'} : {})}, stages: initialStages(), detailOpen: false}); +const fmt = value => new Intl.NumberFormat('zh-CN', {minimumFractionDigits: 2, maximumFractionDigits: 2}).format(value); + +function readStore() { + if (memory) return memory; + try { + const saved = JSON.parse(localStorage.getItem(STORAGE_KEY)); + if (saved?.version === 1 && Array.isArray(saved.profiles)) { + const profiles = saved.profiles.filter(item => typeof item.id === 'string' && typeof item.name === 'string' && + item.inputs && typeof item.inputs === 'object' && Array.isArray(item.stages) && item.stages.length >= 1 && + item.stages.length <= 5 && item.stages.every(stage => stage && typeof stage === 'object')); + if (profiles.length || (saved.profiles.length === 0 && Array.isArray(saved.deletedProfileIds))) return {...saved, profiles}; + } + } catch { /* Storage can be unavailable or corrupt; the calculator still works in memory. */ } + return {version: 1, selected: 'example', profiles: []}; +} + +export function renderDCFCalculator(container, companies = []) { + container.innerHTML = template; + const root = container.querySelector('.dcf-calculator'); + const disposeHelp = createDCFHelp(root); + const q = name => root.querySelector(`[data-${name}]`); + q('crosscheck-slot').innerHTML = crosscheckTemplate; + const fields = Object.fromEntries([...root.querySelectorAll('[data-field]')].map(field => [field.dataset.field, field])); + const crosscheck = createDCFCrosscheck(q('crosscheck-slot').querySelector('.df-crosscheck'), fields, (data) => { + if (!data) { + q('overview-ceiling').textContent = '—'; + q('overview-verdict').textContent = '填写有效的股价及利润假设,比较现金流价值与目标收益门槛。'; + q('overview-verdict').closest('.df-decision').removeAttribute('data-ok'); + q('top-irr').textContent = '—'; + q('top-growth').textContent = '—'; + q('top-irr-detail').textContent = '补全交叉验证参数后显示'; + q('top-growth-detail').textContent = '按现价与基准退出 PE 反推'; + return; + } + const {result, assumptions} = data; + const current = result.rows[0].base; + q('overview-ceiling').textContent = fmt(result.jointCeiling); + const decision = q('overview-verdict').closest('.df-decision'); + decision.dataset.ok = String(assumptions.price <= result.jointCeiling + 1e-10); + q('overview-verdict').textContent = assumptions.price <= result.jointCeiling + 1e-10 + ? '现价低于共同参考上限,两套价格上限均留有设定的安全边际。' + : '现价高于共同参考上限,需复核现金流、利润增长与退出 PE 假设。'; + q('top-irr').textContent = `${fmt(current.irr * 100)}%`; + q('top-growth').textContent = current.requiredGrowth === null ? '无需最低增速' : `${fmt(current.requiredGrowth * 100)}%`; + q('top-irr-detail').textContent = `${current.meetsTarget ? '达到' : '未达'}目标 ${fmt(assumptions.target * 100)}% · 持有 ${assumptions.years} 年`; + q('top-growth-detail').textContent = `含安全边际 ${fmt(Number(fields.margin.value))}% · 无边际 ${current.requiredGrowthWithoutMargin === null ? '无需最低增速' : fmt(current.requiredGrowthWithoutMargin * 100) + '%'} · 退出 PE ${fmt(assumptions.pe)} 倍`; + }); + const store = readStore(); + store.deletedProfileIds = Array.isArray(store.deletedProfileIds) ? store.deletedProfileIds.filter(id => typeof id === 'string') : []; + const addPreset = (id, name, example = false) => { + if (!store.deletedProfileIds.includes(id) && !store.profiles.some(item => item.id === id)) store.profiles.push({id, ...profile(name, example)}); + }; + addPreset('example', '教学示例(假设参数)', true); + companies.forEach(company => addPreset(company.id, company.name)); + let active = store.profiles.find(item => item.id === store.selected) || store.profiles[0]; + store.selected = active?.id ?? null; + let stages; + let chart; + let chartData; + let cashflowChart; + let cashflowRows; + let resizeFrame; + let disposed = false; + let lastDCFInput; + memory = store; + + function save() { + if (active) { + active.inputs = Object.fromEntries(Object.entries(fields).map(([key, field]) => [key, field.value])); + active.stages = stages.map(stage => ({...stage})); + active.detailOpen = q('detail').open; + active.crossAdvancedOpen = q('cross-advanced').open; + } + memory = store; + try { + localStorage.setItem(STORAGE_KEY, JSON.stringify(store)); + q('save-status').textContent = '已自动保存到本机 · 每家公司独立保存'; + } catch { + q('save-status').textContent = '浏览器存储不可用,参数仅在本次页面中保留'; + } + } + + function deleteCompany(item) { + if (!window.confirm(`删除「${item.name}」?\n该公司保存在本机的 DCF 与收益校验参数将一并删除,无法撤销。`)) return; + save(); + const index = store.profiles.findIndex(profile => profile.id === item.id); + if (index < 0) return; + store.profiles.splice(index, 1); + if (!store.deletedProfileIds.includes(item.id)) store.deletedProfileIds.push(item.id); + if (active?.id === item.id) active = store.profiles[Math.min(index, store.profiles.length - 1)]; + store.selected = active?.id ?? null; + applyProfile(); + save(); + const selected = q('company-buttons').querySelector('[aria-pressed="true"]'); + (selected || q('company-name')).focus(); + } + + function renderCompanies() { + q('company-buttons').replaceChildren(...store.profiles.map(item => { + const chip = document.createElement('span'); + chip.className = 'df-company-chip'; + chip.dataset.profileId = item.id; + const button = document.createElement('button'); + button.type = 'button'; + button.textContent = item.name; + button.setAttribute('aria-pressed', String(item.id === active?.id)); + button.addEventListener('click', () => { + if (active?.id === item.id) return; + save(); + active = item; + store.selected = item.id; + q('company-form').hidden = true; + applyProfile(); + save(); + }); + const remove = document.createElement('button'); + remove.type = 'button'; + remove.className = 'df-company-delete'; + remove.textContent = '×'; + remove.setAttribute('aria-label', `删除公司:${item.name}`); + remove.title = `删除${item.name}`; + remove.addEventListener('click', () => deleteCompany(item)); + chip.append(button, remove); + return chip; + })); + } + + function chartColors() { + const styles = getComputedStyle(root); + const color = name => styles.getPropertyValue(name).trim(); + return {ink: color('--df-ink'), muted: color('--df-muted'), line: color('--df-line'), paper: color('--df-paper'), + accent: color('--df-accent'), secondary: color('--df-chart-secondary'), low: color('--df-low'), fair: color('--df-fair'), high: color('--df-high')}; + } + + function drawChart() { + if (disposed || !root.isConnected || !chartData) return; + if (!globalThis.echarts) { + q('market-error').textContent = '图表组件未加载,请检查网络后刷新页面;区间数值仍可查看。'; + q('market-error').hidden = false; + return; + } + if (!chart) chart = globalThis.echarts.init(q('market-chart'), null, {renderer: 'svg'}); + chart.resize(); + chart.setOption(buildDCFPriceOption({...chartData, colors: chartColors(), width: q('market-chart').clientWidth, + reducedMotion: window.matchMedia('(prefers-reduced-motion: reduce)').matches}), true); + } + + function drawCashflowChart() { + if (disposed || !root.isConnected || !cashflowRows) return; + q('cashflow-error').hidden = true; + try { + if (!globalThis.echarts) throw new Error('图表组件未加载,仍可在上方表格查看逐年数据。'); + const element = q('cashflow-chart'); + if (!cashflowChart) cashflowChart = globalThis.echarts.init(element, null, {renderer: 'svg'}); + cashflowChart.resize(); + cashflowChart.setOption(buildDCFCashflowOption({rows: cashflowRows, colors: chartColors(), width: element.clientWidth, + reducedMotion: window.matchMedia('(prefers-reduced-motion: reduce)').matches}), true); + } catch (error) { + q('cashflow-error').textContent = error.message; + q('cashflow-error').hidden = false; + } + } + + function clearMarket(message) { + chartData = undefined; + chart?.clear(); + q('market-chart').hidden = true; + q('zone-keys').hidden = true; + q('market-badge').hidden = true; + q('market-error').hidden = true; + const price = Number(fields.marketPrice.value); + q('market-current').textContent = fields.marketPrice.value.trim() && Number.isFinite(price) && price > 0 ? fmt(price) : '—'; + q('deviation').textContent = '待补全有效的估值参数'; + q('market-message').textContent = message; + q('market-message').hidden = false; + } + + function updateMarket(p, result) { + clearMarket('填写当前股价后查看所处区间'); + if (result.perShare <= 0) { + q('market-message').textContent = '无正的每股股权价值,无法划分股价区间'; + return; + } + try { + if (!fields.premium.value.trim()) throw new Error('请填写高估溢价阈值'); + const range = calculateDCFPriceRange({perShare: result.perShare, margin: p.margin, premium: Number(fields.premium.value) / 100}); + q('zone-low').textContent = `< ${fmt(range.low)} 元`; + q('zone-fair').textContent = `${fmt(range.low)}—${fmt(range.high)} 元`; + q('zone-high').textContent = `> ${fmt(range.high)} 元`; + q('zone-keys').hidden = false; + q('market-message').hidden = true; + q('deviation').textContent = '填写当前股价后查看所处区间'; + let price; + if (fields.marketPrice.value.trim()) { + const entered = Number(fields.marketPrice.value); + try { + const position = classifyDCFPrice(entered, range); + price = entered; + q('market-current').textContent = fmt(price); + q('market-badge').textContent = `${position.zone}区间`; + q('market-badge').dataset.zone = position.zone; + q('market-badge').hidden = false; + q('deviation').textContent = `相对 DCF 每股价值${position.deviation <= 0 ? '折价' : '溢价'} ${fmt(Math.abs(position.deviation) * 100)}%`; + q('market-message').hidden = true; + } catch (error) { + q('market-error').textContent = error.message; + q('market-error').hidden = false; + } + } + q('market-chart').hidden = false; + q('market-chart').setAttribute('aria-label', `${price === undefined ? '尚未填写有效股价' : `当前股价 ${fmt(price)} 元`},DCF 每股价值 ${fmt(range.perShare)} 元,合理区间 ${fmt(range.low)} 至 ${fmt(range.high)} 元`); + chartData = {range, price}; + drawChart(); + } catch (error) { + clearMarket(error.message); + q('market-error').textContent = error.message; + q('market-error').hidden = false; + q('market-message').hidden = true; + } + } + + function renderStages() { + q('stages').replaceChildren(); + stages.forEach((stage, index) => { + const row = document.createElement('div'); + row.className = 'df-stage-row'; + const heading = document.createElement('div'); + heading.className = 'df-stage-name'; + heading.textContent = `阶段 ${index + 1}`; + const range = document.createElement('small'); + range.dataset.stageRange = String(index); + heading.append(range); + row.append(heading); + for (const [key, caption] of [['years', '年数'], ['growth', '年增长率 %']]) { + const label = document.createElement('label'); + const text = document.createElement('span'); + text.className = 'df-stage-key'; + text.textContent = caption; + const input = document.createElement('input'); + input.type = 'number'; + input.step = key === 'years' ? '1' : '0.5'; + input.value = stage[key]; + input.setAttribute('aria-label', `阶段${index + 1}${caption}`); + input.dataset.stage = String(index); + input.dataset.stageField = key; + input.addEventListener('input', () => { + stage[key] = input.value; + update(); + save(); + }); + label.append(text, input); + row.append(label); + } + const remove = document.createElement('button'); + remove.type = 'button'; + remove.textContent = '×'; + remove.setAttribute('aria-label', `删除阶段${index + 1}`); + remove.disabled = stages.length === 1; + remove.addEventListener('click', () => { + stages.splice(index, 1); + renderStages(); + update(); + save(); + }); + row.append(remove); + q('stages').append(row); + }); + q('add').disabled = stages.length >= 5; + } + + function read() { + const input = {basis: fields.basis.value}; + for (const key of ['fcf', 'year', 'shares', 'rate', 'terminal', 'margin', 'debt', 'assets', 'minority']) { + if (input.basis === 'fcfe' && ['debt', 'assets', 'minority'].includes(key)) { input[key] = 0; continue; } + if (!fields[key].value.trim()) throw new Error(key === 'shares' + ? '请填写该公司的当前总股本(亿股),用于每股价值换算' + : '请补全基期现金流、折现率和其他必填参数'); + input[key] = Number(fields[key].value); + } + for (const key of ['rate', 'terminal', 'margin']) input[key] /= 100; + input.stages = stages.map(stage => ({ + years: stage.years.trim() ? Number(stage.years) : NaN, + growth: stage.growth.trim() ? Number(stage.growth) / 100 : NaN, + })); + return input; + } + + function update() { + const fcfe = fields.basis.value === 'fcfe'; + q('rate-label').textContent = fcfe ? '股权资本成本(%)' : '折现率 WACC(%)'; + for (const name of ['debt-field', 'assets-field', 'minority-field', 'adjustment']) q(name).hidden = fcfe; + q('value-label').textContent = fcfe ? '现金流股权价值' : '企业经营价值'; + q('model-note').textContent = fcfe ? 'FCFE 按股权资本成本折现,不再扣减净债务' : 'FCFF 按 WACC 折现,再调整为股权价值'; + let first = 1; + stages.forEach((stage, index) => { + const years = Number(stage.years); + root.querySelector(`[data-stage-range="${index}"]`).textContent = + Number.isInteger(years) && years > 0 && Number.isFinite(first) ? `第 ${first}—${first + years - 1} 年` : '请填写有效年数'; + first = Number.isInteger(years) && years > 0 ? first + years : NaN; + }); + q('error').hidden = true; + q('warning').hidden = true; + try { + const p = read(); + const r = calculateDCF(p); + q('duration').textContent = `合计 ${r.years} 年 · ${p.year + 1}—${p.year + r.years} 年,各阶段逐年复利衔接`; + q('table-summary').textContent = ` · ${r.years} 年`; + const values = {pv: r.forecastPV, tv: r.terminalPV, ev: r.operatingValue, equity: r.equityValue, bridge: r.adjustment}; + for (const [name, value] of Object.entries(values)) q(name).textContent = fmt(value); + q('price').textContent = r.equityValue > 0 ? fmt(r.perShare) : '无正股权价值'; + q('buy').textContent = r.equityValue > 0 ? fmt(r.entryPrice) : '—'; + q('margin-label').textContent = fmt(p.margin * 100) + '%'; + q('shares-note').textContent = `按 ${fmt(p.shares)} 亿股换算${fields.shareDate.value ? ` · 股本日期 ${fields.shareDate.value}` : ''}`; + q('terminal-share').textContent = `永续终值占比 ${fmt(r.terminalWeight * 100)}%`; + q('rows').replaceChildren(...r.rows.map(row => { + const tr = document.createElement('tr'); + for (const value of [`${row.year} · 阶段 ${row.stage}`, `${fmt(row.growth * 100)}%`, fmt(row.cash), row.factor.toFixed(4), fmt(row.presentValue)]) { + const td = document.createElement('td'); + td.textContent = value; + tr.append(td); + } + return tr; + })); + const warnings = []; + if (r.terminalWeight > .75) warnings.push('永续终值超过总现值的 75%,结果对折现率与永续增长率高度敏感。'); + if (r.equityValue <= 0) warnings.push('调整后的股权价值不大于 0,无法据此给出正的每股估值或参考买入价。'); + if (warnings.length) { q('warning').textContent = warnings.join(' '); q('warning').hidden = false; } + q('detail').hidden = false; + cashflowRows = r.rows; + q('cashflow-section').hidden = false; + q('cashflow-caption').textContent = `${p.year + 1}—${p.year + r.years} 年 · ${r.years} 年预测期 · 现值合计 ${fmt(r.forecastPV)} 亿元`; + q('cashflow-chart').setAttribute('aria-label', `${r.years} 年自由现金流与折现现值对比,${r.rows.map(row => `${row.year} 年现金流 ${fmt(row.cash)}、现值 ${fmt(row.presentValue)} 亿元`).join(';')}`); + drawCashflowChart(); + root.querySelector('.df-output').hidden = false; + root.querySelector('.df-results').hidden = false; + q('composition-forecast').style.width = `${Math.max(0, Math.min(100, (1 - r.terminalWeight) * 100))}%`; + q('composition-terminal').style.width = `${Math.max(0, Math.min(100, r.terminalWeight * 100))}%`; + updateMarket(p, r); + lastDCFInput = p; + crosscheck.update(p); + root.dataset.status = 'ready'; + } catch (error) { + q('error').textContent = error.message; + q('error').hidden = false; + q('detail').hidden = true; + cashflowRows = undefined; + cashflowChart?.clear(); + q('cashflow-section').hidden = true; + root.querySelector('.df-output').hidden = true; + root.querySelector('.df-results').hidden = true; + q('duration').textContent = '请补全有效参数后查看结果'; + clearMarket('请补全有效的现金流、股本与折现参数后查看估值区间'); + lastDCFInput = undefined; + crosscheck.update(undefined); + root.dataset.status = 'invalid'; + } + } + + function applyProfile() { + root.dataset.empty = String(!active); + q('company-empty').hidden = Boolean(active); + if (!active) { + stages = []; + lastDCFInput = chartData = cashflowRows = undefined; + chart?.clear(); + cashflowChart?.clear(); + root.dataset.status = 'empty'; + q('company-form').hidden = false; + q('company-error').textContent = ''; + renderCompanies(); + return; + } + const values = {...defaults(active.id === 'example'), ...active.inputs}; + for (const [key, field] of Object.entries(fields)) field.value = values[key]; + stages = active.stages.map(stage => ({years: String(stage.years ?? ''), growth: String(stage.growth ?? '')})); + q('detail').open = active.detailOpen !== false; + q('cross-advanced').open = Boolean(active.crossAdvancedOpen); + q('context').textContent = active.id === 'example' ? '教学示例 · 非实时数据 · 人民币' : `${active.name} · 用户手动输入 · 人民币`; + renderCompanies(); + renderStages(); + update(); + } + + q('add').addEventListener('click', () => { + if (stages.length >= 5) return; + stages.push({years: '3', growth: '3'}); + renderStages(); update(); save(); + }); + for (const [name, field] of Object.entries(fields)) field.addEventListener('input', () => { + if (name.startsWith('cross')) crosscheck.update(lastDCFInput); + else update(); + save(); + }); + q('detail').addEventListener('toggle', () => { if (root.isConnected) save(); }); + q('cross-advanced').addEventListener('toggle', () => { if (root.isConnected) save(); }); + q('new-company').addEventListener('click', () => { + q('company-form').hidden = false; + q('company-error').textContent = ''; + q('company-name').focus(); + }); + q('cancel-company').addEventListener('click', () => { q('company-form').hidden = true; }); + q('company-form').addEventListener('submit', event => { + event.preventDefault(); + const name = q('company-name').value.trim(); + if (!name) { q('company-error').textContent = '请输入公司名称'; return; } + if (store.profiles.some(item => item.name === name)) { q('company-error').textContent = '该公司已存在,请点击公司按钮切换'; return; } + save(); + active = {id: `custom-${crypto.randomUUID()}`, ...profile(name)}; + store.profiles.push(active); + store.selected = active.id; + q('company-form').hidden = true; + q('company-name').value = ''; + applyProfile(); save(); + }); + root.querySelectorAll('[data-jump]').forEach(button => button.addEventListener('click', () => { + const target = root.querySelector(`[data-section="${button.dataset.jump}"]`); + if (target === q('detail')) target.open = true; + target.scrollIntoView({behavior: window.matchMedia('(prefers-reduced-motion: reduce)').matches ? 'instant' : 'smooth', block: 'start'}); + target.focus({preventScroll: true}); + })); + applyProfile(); + const observer = new ResizeObserver(() => { + cancelAnimationFrame(resizeFrame); + resizeFrame = requestAnimationFrame(() => { drawChart(); drawCashflowChart(); }); + }); + observer.observe(q('market-chart')); + observer.observe(q('cashflow-chart')); + return () => { + disposed = true; + disposeHelp(); + observer.disconnect(); + cancelAnimationFrame(resizeFrame); + chart?.dispose(); + cashflowChart?.dispose(); + }; +} diff --git a/js/tools/dcf-cashflow-chart.js b/js/tools/dcf-cashflow-chart.js new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2c09f49 --- /dev/null +++ b/js/tools/dcf-cashflow-chart.js @@ -0,0 +1,36 @@ +const fmt = value => new Intl.NumberFormat('zh-CN', {maximumFractionDigits: 2}).format(value); + +// Both series use the same annual rows as the retained table, in 亿元. +export function buildDCFCashflowOption({rows, colors, width, reducedMotion = false}) { + const compact = width < 520; + return { + animation: !reducedMotion, + animationDuration: 0, + animationDurationUpdate: 200, + color: [colors.secondary, colors.accent], + legend: {top: 0, left: 'center', itemWidth: 12, itemHeight: 8, + textStyle: {color: colors.muted, fontSize: 11}, data: ['自由现金流', '折现后现值']}, + grid: {left: compact ? 8 : 12, right: 12, top: 58, bottom: rows.length > 15 ? 70 : 16, containLabel: true}, + tooltip: {trigger: 'axis', confine: true, backgroundColor: colors.paper, borderColor: colors.line, + textStyle: {color: colors.ink, fontSize: 12}, axisPointer: {type: 'shadow'}, + formatter: params => { + const row = rows[params[0].dataIndex]; + return `${row.year} 年 · 阶段 ${row.stage}
自由现金流:${fmt(row.cash)} 亿元
折现后现值:${fmt(row.presentValue)} 亿元
折现因子:${row.factor.toFixed(4)}
现金流增长率:${fmt(row.growth * 100)}%`; + }}, + xAxis: {type: 'category', data: rows.map(row => String(row.year)), + axisLine: {lineStyle: {color: colors.line}}, axisTick: {show: false}, + axisLabel: {color: colors.muted, fontSize: 11, hideOverlap: true}}, + yAxis: {type: 'value', name: '亿元', nameTextStyle: {color: colors.muted, fontSize: 11}, + axisLabel: {color: colors.muted, fontSize: 11}, + splitLine: {lineStyle: {color: colors.line, type: 'dashed'}}}, + dataZoom: rows.length > 15 ? [{type: 'slider', height: 18, bottom: 8, + startValue: 0, endValue: 14, borderColor: colors.line, + textStyle: {color: colors.muted, fontSize: 10}}] : [], + series: [ + {name: '自由现金流', type: 'bar', data: rows.map(row => row.cash), + barMaxWidth: 24, itemStyle: {borderRadius: [3, 3, 0, 0]}}, + {name: '折现后现值', type: 'bar', data: rows.map(row => row.presentValue), + barMaxWidth: 24, itemStyle: {borderRadius: [3, 3, 0, 0]}}, + ], + }; +} diff --git a/js/tools/dcf-crosscheck-math.js b/js/tools/dcf-crosscheck-math.js new file mode 100644 index 0000000..acc5817 --- /dev/null +++ b/js/tools/dcf-crosscheck-math.js @@ -0,0 +1,50 @@ +import { calculateDCF } from './dcf-math.js'; +import { calculate as calculateReturn } from './stock-return-math.js'; + +// Cash amounts: 亿元; shares: 亿股; prices/dividends: 元/股; rates: decimals. +export function calculateDCFCrosscheck(dcfInput, assumptions) { + const dcf = calculateDCF(dcfInput); + if (dcf.perShare <= 0) throw new Error('无正的 DCF 每股股权价值,无法进行双价格验证'); + if (!Number.isFinite(assumptions.price) || assumptions.price <= 0) throw new Error('请在股价区填写大于 0 的当前股价'); + if (!['manual', 'estimate'].includes(assumptions.profitMode)) throw new Error('请选择归母净利润来源'); + let profit; + if (assumptions.profitMode === 'estimate') { + if (dcfInput.basis !== 'fcfe') throw new Error('FCFF 口径不能直接估算归母净利润,请手动填写'); + if (!Number.isFinite(assumptions.conversion) || assumptions.conversion <= 0) throw new Error('基期现金转化率须大于 0'); + profit = dcfInput.fcf / assumptions.conversion; + } else profit = assumptions.profit; + if (!Number.isFinite(profit) || profit <= 0) throw new Error('基期归母净利润须大于 0'); + for (const pe of [assumptions.peLow, assumptions.pe, assumptions.peHigh]) { + if (!Number.isFinite(pe) || pe <= 0) throw new Error('悲观、基准和乐观退出 PE 均须大于 0'); + } + if (assumptions.peLow > assumptions.pe || assumptions.pe > assumptions.peHigh) throw new Error('退出 PE 请按悲观 ≤ 基准 ≤ 乐观填写'); + const model = {base_year: dcfInput.year, base_profit_100m: profit, shares_100m: dcfInput.shares, + years: assumptions.years, growth_rate: assumptions.profitGrowth, target_return: assumptions.target, + annual_dividend_per_share: assumptions.dividend, dividend_growth_rate: assumptions.dividendGrowth, + annual_dilution_rate: assumptions.dilution, + // Use the standalone calculator's safety-margin convention for both price and growth. + // Actual IRR still uses the actual buy price, without a synthetic price adjustment. + safety_margin: dcfInput.margin}; + const scenario = (price, exitPe) => { + const result = calculateReturn({...model, price, exit_pe: exitPe}); + return {pe: exitPe, irr: result.holding_period_irr, + requiredGrowth: result.required_growth_with_safety_margin.required_growth_rate, + requiredGrowthWithoutMargin: result.required_growth.required_growth_rate, + maxPrice: result.max_purchase_price_at_target_return, + maxPriceWithMargin: result.max_purchase_price_with_safety_margin, + meetsSafetyMargin: result.meets_safety_margin, + meetsTarget: result.holding_period_irr + 1e-10 >= assumptions.target}; + }; + const rows = [ + {name: '当前股价买入', price: assumptions.price}, + {name: 'DCF 参考价买入', price: dcf.entryPrice}, + ].map(row => ({...row, scenarios: [assumptions.peLow, assumptions.pe, assumptions.peHigh].map(pe => scenario(row.price, pe))})); + rows.forEach(row => { row.base = row.scenarios[1]; }); + const returnCeiling = rows[0].base.maxPriceWithMargin; + const jointCeiling = Math.min(dcf.entryPrice, returnCeiling); + const dcfCondition = assumptions.price <= dcf.entryPrice + 1e-10; + const returnCondition = rows[0].base.meetsSafetyMargin; + return {profit, estimated: assumptions.profitMode === 'estimate', dcf, rows, returnCeiling, jointCeiling, + dcfCondition, returnCondition, dcfDiscount: 1 - assumptions.price / dcf.perShare, + growthGap: rows[0].base.requiredGrowth === null ? null : assumptions.profitGrowth - rows[0].base.requiredGrowth}; +} diff --git a/js/tools/dcf-crosscheck.html b/js/tools/dcf-crosscheck.html new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9907753 --- /dev/null +++ b/js/tools/dcf-crosscheck.html @@ -0,0 +1,69 @@ +
+
02

目标收益交叉验证

以当前价格买入,需要怎样的盈利增长

IRR
+
共用当前公司的股价、股本、基期及 DCF 参考价
+
利润与收益假设 独立于 DCF 现金流增速
+
+ + + +
+ +
+
+
+ + +
+
+ + + +
+
退出 PE 为情景假设,不是未来市场定价承诺。目标收益率不会改写 DCF 折现率。
+
+
+
+ 分红与股本变化 +
+ + + +
+
每年末收到股息,末年同时收到股息与退出款;股息路径独立于利润,不计再投资与税费。DCF 按固定股本计算,本区股本变化仅用于收益验证。
+
+
+ + +
diff --git a/js/tools/dcf-crosscheck.js b/js/tools/dcf-crosscheck.js new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6748dfb --- /dev/null +++ b/js/tools/dcf-crosscheck.js @@ -0,0 +1,130 @@ +import { calculateDCFCrosscheck } from './dcf-crosscheck-math.js'; + +const fmt = value => new Intl.NumberFormat('zh-CN', {minimumFractionDigits: 2, maximumFractionDigits: 2}).format(value); +const pct = value => `${fmt(value * 100)}%`; +const cell = (text, ok) => { + const td = document.createElement('td'); + if (ok === undefined) td.textContent = text; + else { + const span = document.createElement('span'); + span.className = 'df-cross-tag'; + span.dataset.ok = String(ok); + span.textContent = text; + td.append(span); + } + return td; +}; + +export function createDCFCrosscheck(root, fields, onResult = () => {}) { + const q = name => root.querySelector(`[data-cross-${name}]`); + const number = (name, label) => { + if (!fields[name].value.trim()) throw new Error(`请填写${label}`); + const value = Number(fields[name].value); + if (!Number.isFinite(value)) throw new Error(`${label}须为有效数字`); + return value; + }; + function reset(message) { + q('results').hidden = true; + q('error').textContent = message; + q('error').hidden = false; + q('derived').textContent = '—'; + root.dataset.status = 'invalid'; + onResult(undefined); + } + function update(dcfInput) { + const fcff = fields.basis.value !== 'fcfe'; + fields.crossProfitMode.querySelector('[value="estimate"]').disabled = fcff; + if (fcff && fields.crossProfitMode.value === 'estimate') fields.crossProfitMode.value = 'manual'; + const estimated = fields.crossProfitMode.value === 'estimate'; + q('bridge').hidden = !estimated; + q('manual').hidden = estimated; + q('source-note').textContent = fcff ? 'FCFF 包含债权人现金流,归母净利润需独立输入。' + : estimated ? '采用基期转化率假设估算利润,非独立财报验证。' : '归母净利润独立输入,不随基期现金流自动变动。'; + q('fcf').textContent = dcfInput ? fmt(dcfInput.fcf) : '—'; + if (!dcfInput) { + q('shared').textContent = '共用当前公司的股价、股本和基期,请先补全有效的 DCF 参数。'; + reset('完成 DCF 参数后,可继续填写利润与目标收益假设进行验证。'); + return; + } + q('shared').textContent = `已共用当前公司 · ${dcfInput.year} 年基期 · ${fmt(dcfInput.shares)} 亿股 · 人民币口径`; + try { + const assumptions = { + price: number('marketPrice', '当前股价(上方股价区)'), + profitMode: fields.crossProfitMode.value, + profit: estimated ? undefined : number('crossProfit', '基期归母净利润'), + conversion: estimated ? number('crossConversion', '基期现金转化率') / 100 : undefined, + profitGrowth: number('crossProfitGrowth', '预计利润年增长率') / 100, + target: number('crossTarget', '目标年化收益率') / 100, + years: number('crossYears', '持有年限'), + peLow: number('crossPeLow', '悲观退出 PE'), pe: number('crossPe', '基准退出 PE'), peHigh: number('crossPeHigh', '乐观退出 PE'), + dividend: number('crossDividend', '首年股息'), + dividendGrowth: number('crossDividendGrowth', '股息增长率') / 100, + dilution: number('crossDilution', '股本年变化率') / 100, + }; + const result = calculateDCFCrosscheck(dcfInput, assumptions); + const current = result.rows[0].base; + const growthText = growth => growth === null ? '无需最低增速' : pct(growth); + q('derived').textContent = `${fmt(result.profit)} 亿元`; + q('caption').textContent = `基准退出 PE ${fmt(assumptions.pe)} 倍 · 持有 ${assumptions.years} 年`; + q('advanced-caption').textContent = ` · 首年股息 ${fmt(assumptions.dividend)} 元 · 股本年变化 ${pct(assumptions.dilution)}`; + q('price-rows').replaceChildren(...result.rows.map(row => { + const tr = document.createElement('tr'); + tr.append(cell(row.name), cell(fmt(row.price)), cell(`${growthText(row.base.requiredGrowth)}(含边际);无边际 ${growthText(row.base.requiredGrowthWithoutMargin)}`), + cell(pct(row.base.irr)), cell(row.base.meetsTarget ? '达到目标' : '未达目标', row.base.meetsTarget)); + return tr; + })); + q('dcf-condition').textContent = result.dcfCondition ? '现价满足 DCF 安全边际要求' : '现价未满足 DCF 安全边际要求'; + q('dcf-gap').textContent = `相对 DCF 每股价值${result.dcfDiscount >= 0 ? '折价' : '溢价'} ${pct(Math.abs(result.dcfDiscount))}`; + q('growth-condition').textContent = current.requiredGrowth === null ? '股息现值已覆盖含边际要求' + : `预计利润年增 ${pct(assumptions.profitGrowth)},含边际门槛 ${pct(current.requiredGrowth)}`; + q('growth-gap').textContent = result.growthGap === null ? '当前分红假设下,无最低退出盈利要求。' + : `${result.growthGap >= 0 ? '高于' : '低于'}门槛 ${fmt(Math.abs(result.growthGap) * 100)} 个百分点`; + q('verdict').textContent = result.dcfCondition + ? result.returnCondition ? '当前两套模型条件均满足;结果仍取决于现金流、利润和退出 PE 假设。' + : 'DCF 有安全边际,但当前利润增长与退出 PE 假设尚未同时满足目标回报和设定的安全边际。' + : result.returnCondition ? '收益情景满足目标回报和设定的安全边际,但现价尚未满足 DCF 安全边际要求,需复核两边假设。' + : '现价尚未同时满足 DCF 与目标收益模型的安全边际条件。'; + q('joint-dcf').textContent = fmt(result.dcf.entryPrice); + q('joint-return').textContent = fmt(result.returnCeiling); + q('return-base').textContent = `折扣前 ${fmt(current.maxPrice)} 元/股`; + q('joint-price').textContent = fmt(result.jointCeiling); + q('joint-note').textContent = `两套参考价各应用一次 ${pct(dcfInput.margin)} 安全边际后取较低值;单位:元/股。`; + q('growth-note').textContent = `所需增速计入 ${pct(dcfInput.margin)} 安全边际,与“收益反推”的主结果口径相同,同时列示无边际对照。预计 IRR 按实际买入价、股息与退出款计算,不因安全边际设置而改变。`; + for (const [name, value] of [['low', assumptions.peLow], ['base', assumptions.pe], ['high', assumptions.peHigh]]) { + q(`head-${name}`).textContent = `${{low: '悲观', base: '基准', high: '乐观'}[name]} · ${fmt(value)} 倍`; + } + q('cards').replaceChildren(...currentScenarios()); + function currentScenarios() { + return result.rows[0].scenarios.map((scenario, index) => { + const card = document.createElement('article'); + card.className = 'df-scenario-card'; + card.dataset.base = String(index === 1); + card.dataset.ok = String(scenario.meetsTarget); + const caption = document.createElement('span'); + caption.textContent = `${['悲观', '基准', '乐观'][index]} · PE ${fmt(scenario.pe)}`; + const value = document.createElement('strong'); + value.textContent = pct(scenario.irr); + const growth = document.createElement('small'); + growth.textContent = `含边际所需年增 ${growthText(scenario.requiredGrowth)};无边际 ${growthText(scenario.requiredGrowthWithoutMargin)}`; + const status = document.createElement('span'); + status.className = 'df-scenario-status'; + status.textContent = scenario.meetsTarget ? '✓ 达到目标收益' : '未达目标收益'; + card.append(caption, value, growth, status); + return card; + }); + } + q('scenario-rows').replaceChildren(...result.rows.map(row => { + const tr = document.createElement('tr'); + tr.append(cell(row.name), ...row.scenarios.map(scenario => cell(pct(scenario.irr)))); + return tr; + })); + q('results').hidden = false; + q('error').hidden = true; + root.dataset.status = 'ready'; + onResult({result, assumptions}); + } catch (error) { + reset(error.message); + } + } + return {update}; +} diff --git a/js/tools/dcf-help.html b/js/tools/dcf-help.html new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f6f8d2c --- /dev/null +++ b/js/tools/dcf-help.html @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ + +
+

估值概念说明

理解现金流口径,再选择适合数据的估值方式。

+ +
+ +
+

FCFF 看企业能为股东和债权人整体创造多少现金;FCFE 看处理完债务融资后,能留给股东多少现金。

+
+

FCFF · 企业自由现金流

+

公司支付经营支出、税费,并满足必要的再投资后,可以供股东和债权人分配的现金。它尚未扣除向债权人支付的利息及本金,也不包含新借款流入。

+

可以把公司想成一家你和银行共同出资的工厂:FCFF 衡量工厂业务本身创造现金的能力。

+
FCFF = 税后经营利润 + 折旧摊销等非现金费用 − 资本开支 − 经营营运资金增加
+

本页如何使用:按 WACC(股东与债权人的综合资金成本)折现,先得到企业经营价值,再扣净债务、加其他非经营资产净额、扣少数股东权益,换算为每股价值。超额现金若已在净债务中扣除,不应重复加回。

+
+
+

FCFE · 股权自由现金流

+

满足经营、税费及再投资需求,并考虑利息、偿还借款和新增借款后,可供普通股股东分配的现金。它代表分配能力,实际分红可能低于这个金额。

+
FCFE = FCFF − 利息 ×(1 − 所得税率)+ 新增借款 − 偿还借款本金
+

假设例子:FCFF 为 100 万元,利息为 10 万元,所得税率 25%,偿还本金 20 万元,新借款 10 万元。则 FCFE = 100 − 7.5 − 20 + 10 = 82.5 万元。

+

本页如何使用:按股权资本成本(股东要求的回报率)折现,直接得到现金流对应的股权价值。债务融资影响已在现金流预测中考虑,本页不再单独扣减净债务;其他未纳入现金流的资产需另行核对。

+
+
+

两种口径怎么选?

+
+ + + + +
对比FCFFFCFE
现金属于谁股东与债权人整体普通股股东
折现率WACC股权资本成本
折现结果企业经营价值现金流股权价值
本页净债务处理从经营价值中扣减不再单独扣减
+

根据手上数据的实际定义选择。切换下拉选项不会自动把 FCFF 转换为 FCFE,也不会自动换算折现率;现金流金额、预测增长率与折现率都要使用匹配的假设。

+

财报中的“经营活动现金流净额”还没有扣除资本开支,不能直接当作自由现金流。“经营现金流减资本开支”也需核对利息分类与借款处理,才能确定其口径。

+
+
+

为什么还要输入归母净利润?

+

DCF 使用自由现金流;目标收益交叉验证通过利润、股本和退出 PE 推算回报。利润和现金流会因折旧、资本开支、应收账款与存货占款等产生差异。

+
现金转化率 = FCFE ÷ 归母净利润
估算归母净利润 = FCFE ÷ 现金转化率
+

例如 FCFE 为 80 亿元、现金转化率假设为 80%,估算利润为 100 亿元。该比例是用户假设;填 100% 表示假设两者相等。

+

本页的选择限制:“共用 FCFE + 现金转化率估算”仅在基础参数选择 FCFE 时启用。FCFF 模式需手动输入归母净利润。使用独立财报利润更有利于交叉验证;共用现金流估算的利润会依赖同一套假设。

+

与“收益反推”对照:目标收益参考价和所需利润增速均计入本页设置的安全边际。两页对照时,需同时保持买入价、利润、股本、持有年限、退出 PE、目标收益率、安全边际、分红与股本变化假设一致。预计 IRR 始终按实际买入价计算。

+
+

参考:CFA Institute · Free Cash Flow Valuation(英文)

+
+
diff --git a/js/tools/dcf-help.js b/js/tools/dcf-help.js new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bae9c8c --- /dev/null +++ b/js/tools/dcf-help.js @@ -0,0 +1,59 @@ +import template from './dcf-help.html?raw'; + +// Keep the documentation separate from calculator inputs and per-company storage. +// Add future concepts as a section and a matching directory button in the template. +export function createDCFHelp(root) { + root.insertAdjacentHTML('beforeend', template); + const dialog = root.querySelector('.df-help-dialog'); + const trigger = root.querySelector('[data-help-open]'); + const body = dialog.querySelector('.df-help-body'); + let previousOverflow; + + const unlock = () => { + if (previousOverflow === undefined) return; + document.documentElement.style.overflow = previousOverflow; + previousOverflow = undefined; + }; + trigger.addEventListener('click', () => { + if (dialog.open) return; + dialog.showModal(); + previousOverflow = document.documentElement.style.overflow; + document.documentElement.style.overflow = 'hidden'; + body.scrollTop = 0; + }); + dialog.querySelector('[data-help-close]').addEventListener('click', () => dialog.close()); + dialog.addEventListener('close', () => { + unlock(); + if (trigger.isConnected) trigger.focus({preventScroll: true}); + }); + dialog.addEventListener('keydown', event => { + if (event.key !== 'Tab') return; + const items = [...dialog.querySelectorAll('button:not(:disabled), a[href]')]; + const destination = event.shiftKey && document.activeElement === items[0] ? items.at(-1) + : !event.shiftKey && document.activeElement === items.at(-1) ? items[0] : undefined; + if (destination) { + event.preventDefault(); + destination.focus(); + } + }); + let backdropPointer = false; + const outside = event => { + const rect = dialog.getBoundingClientRect(); + return event.clientX < rect.left || event.clientX > rect.right || event.clientY < rect.top || event.clientY > rect.bottom; + }; + dialog.addEventListener('pointerdown', event => { backdropPointer = event.target === dialog && outside(event); }); + dialog.addEventListener('click', event => { + if (backdropPointer && event.target === dialog && outside(event)) dialog.close(); + backdropPointer = false; + }); + dialog.querySelectorAll('[data-help-jump]').forEach(button => button.addEventListener('click', () => { + const section = dialog.querySelector(`[data-help-section="${button.dataset.helpJump}"]`); + body.scrollTop = section.getBoundingClientRect().top - body.getBoundingClientRect().top + body.scrollTop; + section.focus({preventScroll: true}); + })); + return () => { + if (dialog.open) dialog.close(); + unlock(); + dialog.remove(); + }; +} diff --git a/js/tools/dcf-math.js b/js/tools/dcf-math.js new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ae6013e --- /dev/null +++ b/js/tools/dcf-math.js @@ -0,0 +1,71 @@ +// Segmented, year-end cash-flow DCF. Rates are decimals; cash amounts are 亿元, shares 亿股. +export function calculateDCF(p) { + const finite = (value, label) => { + if (typeof value !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(value)) throw new Error(`${label}须为有效数字`); + }; + if (!['fcff', 'fcfe'].includes(p.basis)) throw new Error('请选择现金流口径'); + for (const [key, label] of Object.entries({fcf: '基期自由现金流', shares: '当前总股本', rate: '折现率', terminal: '永续增长率', margin: '安全边际'})) finite(p[key], label); + if (p.fcf <= 0) throw new Error('本模型要求基期可持续自由现金流大于 0'); + if (p.shares <= 0) throw new Error('请填写该公司的当前总股本(亿股),且须大于 0'); + if (!Number.isInteger(p.year) || p.year < 1900 || p.year > 2200) throw new Error('基期年份须为 1900—2200 的整数'); + if (p.rate <= -1 || p.terminal <= -1 || p.terminal >= p.rate) throw new Error('永续增长率须小于折现率,且两者均须大于 −100%'); + if (p.margin < 0 || p.margin >= 1) throw new Error('安全边际须大于等于 0% 且小于 100%'); + if (!Array.isArray(p.stages) || p.stages.length < 1 || p.stages.length > 5) throw new Error('请设置 1—5 个增长阶段'); + let years = 0; + for (const stage of p.stages) { + if (!Number.isInteger(stage.years) || stage.years < 1) throw new Error('每阶段年数须为正整数'); + finite(stage.growth, '阶段增长率'); + if (stage.growth <= -1) throw new Error('阶段增长率须大于 −100%'); + years += stage.years; + } + if (years > 30) throw new Error('显式预测期合计最多 30 年'); + let adjustment = 0; + if (p.basis === 'fcff') { + for (const [key, label] of Object.entries({debt: '净债务', assets: '非经营资产净额', minority: '少数股东权益'})) finite(p[key], label); + adjustment = -p.debt + p.assets - p.minority; + } + let cash = p.fcf, t = 0, forecastPV = 0; + const rows = []; + p.stages.forEach((stage, i) => { + for (let y = 0; y < stage.years; y++) { + t++; + cash *= 1 + stage.growth; + const factor = (1 + p.rate) ** -t; + const presentValue = cash * factor; + forecastPV += presentValue; + rows.push({year: p.year + t, stage: i + 1, growth: stage.growth, cash, factor, presentValue}); + } + }); + const terminalCash = cash * (1 + p.terminal); + const terminalValue = terminalCash / (p.rate - p.terminal); + const terminalPV = terminalValue / (1 + p.rate) ** years; + const operatingValue = forecastPV + terminalPV; + const equityValue = operatingValue + adjustment; + const perShare = equityValue / p.shares; + const entryPrice = perShare * (1 - p.margin); + const terminalWeight = terminalPV / operatingValue; + const result = {years, rows, terminalCash, terminalValue, forecastPV, terminalPV, operatingValue, + adjustment, equityValue, perShare, entryPrice, terminalWeight}; + if (![terminalCash, terminalValue, forecastPV, terminalPV, operatingValue, equityValue, perShare, + entryPrice, terminalWeight, ...rows.flatMap(row => [row.cash, row.factor, row.presentValue])].every(Number.isFinite)) { + throw new Error('参数超出有效计算范围,请缩小参数'); + } + return result; +} + +// The price bands are user-defined discounts/premiums around this DCF scenario. +export function calculateDCFPriceRange({perShare, margin, premium}) { + if (!Number.isFinite(perShare) || perShare <= 0) throw new Error('无正的每股股权价值,无法划分股价区间'); + if (!Number.isFinite(margin) || margin < 0 || margin >= 1) throw new Error('低估折价须大于等于 0% 且小于 100%'); + if (!Number.isFinite(premium) || premium < 0 || premium > 10) throw new Error('高估溢价阈值须为 0%—1000%'); + const low = perShare * (1 - margin); + const high = perShare * (1 + premium); + if (![low, high].every(Number.isFinite)) throw new Error('区间超出有效数值范围'); + return {low, high, perShare}; +} + +export function classifyDCFPrice(price, range) { + if (!Number.isFinite(price) || price <= 0) throw new Error('当前股价须为大于 0 的有效数字'); + const zone = price < range.low ? '低估' : price > range.high ? '高估' : '合理'; + return {zone, deviation: price / range.perShare - 1}; +} diff --git a/js/tools/dcf-price-chart.js b/js/tools/dcf-price-chart.js new file mode 100644 index 0000000..03ce6a2 --- /dev/null +++ b/js/tools/dcf-price-chart.js @@ -0,0 +1,36 @@ +const fmt = value => new Intl.NumberFormat('zh-CN', {minimumFractionDigits: 2, maximumFractionDigits: 2}).format(value); + +/** Pure option builder; the calculator owns chart mounting, resizing and disposal. */ +export function buildDCFPriceOption({range, price, colors, width, reducedMotion = false}) { + const {low, high, perShare} = range; + const max = Math.max(high * 1.3, perShare * 1.6, price === undefined ? 0 : price * 1.2); + if (!Number.isFinite(max)) throw new Error('股价超出有效图表范围'); + const plotWidth = Math.max(1, width - 40); + const label = (text, amount) => ({show: amount / max * plotWidth > 40, position: 'inside', formatter: text, color: colors.ink, fontSize: 12}); + const series = [ + {name: `低估:低于 ${fmt(low)} 元`, type: 'bar', stack: 'zone', data: [low], barWidth: 42, + itemStyle: {color: colors.low}, label: label('低估', low)}, + {name: `合理:${fmt(low)}—${fmt(high)} 元`, type: 'bar', stack: 'zone', data: [high - low], + itemStyle: {color: colors.fair}, label: label('合理', high - low), + markLine: {silent: true, symbol: ['none', 'none'], lineStyle: {type: 'dashed', color: colors.accent, width: 1.5}, + label: {show: true, position: 'end', formatter: `DCF ${fmt(perShare)}`, align: perShare / max < .18 ? 'left' : 'center', color: colors.ink, fontSize: 12}, + data: [{xAxis: perShare}]}}, + {name: `高估:高于 ${fmt(high)} 元`, type: 'bar', stack: 'zone', data: [max - high], + itemStyle: {color: colors.high}, label: label('高估', max - high)}, + ]; + if (price !== undefined) series.push({name: '当前股价', type: 'scatter', data: [[price, 0]], symbol: 'triangle', symbolSize: 13, + symbolOffset: [0, 31], itemStyle: {color: colors.accent}, z: 6, + label: {show: true, position: price / max < .12 ? 'right' : 'bottom', distance: 5, formatter: fmt(price), color: colors.ink, fontSize: 12}}); + return { + animation: !reducedMotion, animationDuration: 0, animationDurationUpdate: 260, + grid: {left: 16, right: 24, top: 45, bottom: 65}, + tooltip: {trigger: 'item', confine: true, backgroundColor: colors.paper, borderColor: colors.line, + textStyle: {color: colors.ink, fontSize: 12}, formatter: params => params.seriesType === 'scatter' ? `当前股价:${fmt(price)} 元/股` : params.seriesName}, + xAxis: {type: 'value', min: 0, max, splitNumber: width < 400 ? 3 : 5, name: '股价(元/股)', nameLocation: 'middle', nameGap: 42, + nameTextStyle: {color: colors.muted, fontSize: 11}, axisLine: {show: true, lineStyle: {color: colors.line}}, + axisTick: {show: false}, splitLine: {show: false}, + axisLabel: {color: colors.muted, fontSize: 11, formatter: value => Number(value).toFixed(0), hideOverlap: true}}, + yAxis: {type: 'category', data: ['价格区间'], axisLine: {show: false}, axisTick: {show: false}, axisLabel: {show: false}}, + series, + }; +} diff --git a/js/tools/stock-return-calculator.html b/js/tools/stock-return-calculator.html new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ddbc2d7 --- /dev/null +++ b/js/tools/stock-return-calculator.html @@ -0,0 +1,99 @@ +
+
+

目标收益反推增长率

+
+
+
+
+ + +
+
+ + + + + + + +
+
+ 分红、股本、币种与基期 +
+
+ + + + + + + +
+
+
+
参数自动保存在本机浏览器
+

+ +
+
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+
所需归母利润年复合增长率
+
—
+
+
+
目标年所需归母利润
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—
+
+
+
所需退出价
+
—
+
+
+
+
+
+

所需增速是达到目标回报的门槛,不是企业盈利预测。退出 PE 是用户假设,本模型依赖未来市场估值,不等于企业内在价值。

+

每年末收取股息,末年同时收到股息和退出款;股息按独立增速计算,不自动与利润联动,不计股息再投资和交易税费。股本增加会摊薄每股盈利。

+

安全边际按股息与退出款的总现值打折,20% 表示打八折。币种切换不会自动换算已填金额,跨币种请填写有来源日期的固定汇率;本工具不联网获取行情或财报。

+
+
diff --git a/js/tools/stock-return-calculator.js b/js/tools/stock-return-calculator.js new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4632453 --- /dev/null +++ b/js/tools/stock-return-calculator.js @@ -0,0 +1,144 @@ +// UI and formulas adapted from the stock-return-valuation skill (v1.2.0). +import template from './stock-return-calculator.html?raw'; +import * as math from './stock-return-math.js'; + +export const valuationMenu = { + id: 'valuation-tools', name: '估值工具', kind: 'tools', chartCatalog: {}, + tabs: [ + {id: 'dcf', name: 'DCF 估值', chartRefs: []}, + {id: 'stock-return-valuation', name: '收益反推', chartRefs: []}, + ], +}; +const STORAGE_KEY = 'smart-fin-chart:stock-return-valuation:v1'; +let memoryState; +const example = { + model: {company: '通用股票估值 · 教学示例', base_year: 2026, years: 3, price: 220, + base_profit_100m: 860, shares_100m: 46.27, exit_pe: 13, target_return: 0.13, + growth_rate: 0.10, safety_margin: 0, annual_dividend_per_share: 0, + dividend_growth_rate: 0, annual_dilution_rate: 0}, + view: {mode: 'reverse', fx: 1, trade_currency: 'CNY', profit_currency: 'CNY', + context: '默认参数仅为情景假设,不是实时行情、已披露财报或机构预测。请替换为你的研究数据。'}, +}; + +export function renderStockReturnCalculator(container) { + container.innerHTML = template; + const root = container.querySelector('.return-calculator'); + const fields = Object.fromEntries(Array.from(root.querySelectorAll('[data-field]')).map(el => [el.dataset.field, el])); + const q = name => root.querySelector('[data-' + name + ']'); + const currencyName = {CNY:'人民币',HKD:'港元',USD:'美元',OTHER:'其他币种'}; + const format = n => new Intl.NumberFormat('zh-CN', {maximumFractionDigits:2, minimumFractionDigits:2}).format(n); + const model = example.model, view = example.view, fx = view.fx; + for (let n = 1; n <= 30; n++) fields.years.add(new Option(n + '年', n)); + const defaults = { + mode:view.mode, years:model.years, price:model.price / fx, profit:model.base_profit_100m, pe:model.exit_pe, + target:model.target_return * 100, shares:model.shares_100m, growth:model.growth_rate * 100, + safetyMargin:(model.safety_margin || 0) * 100, + dividend:model.annual_dividend_per_share / fx, dividendGrowth:model.dividend_growth_rate * 100, + dilution:model.annual_dilution_rate * 100, baseYear:model.base_year, + tradeCurrency:view.trade_currency, profitCurrency:view.profit_currency, fx:fx + }; + q('company').textContent = model.company || '股票估值'; + q('context').textContent = view.context || model.data_as_of || ''; + function read() { + const raw = {}; + for (const [name, field] of Object.entries(fields)) { + if (['mode','tradeCurrency','profitCurrency'].includes(name)) raw[name] = field.value; + else { + if (!field.value.trim()) throw new Error('请填写完整参数'); + raw[name] = Number(field.value); + if (!Number.isFinite(raw[name])) throw new Error('参数必须是有效数字'); + } + } + if (!['reverse','forward','buy'].includes(raw.mode)) throw new Error('请选择计算方式'); + if (!(raw.fx > 0)) throw new Error('汇率必须大于0'); + if (raw.tradeCurrency === raw.profitCurrency && Math.abs(raw.fx - 1) > 1e-10) throw new Error('币种相同时,请将汇率设为1'); + return raw; + } + function normalize(raw) { + return {company:model.company, base_year:raw.baseYear, years:raw.years, price:raw.price * raw.fx, + base_profit_100m:raw.profit, shares_100m:raw.shares, exit_pe:raw.pe, target_return:raw.target / 100, + growth_rate:raw.growth / 100, safety_margin:raw.safetyMargin / 100, annual_dividend_per_share:raw.dividend * raw.fx, + dividend_growth_rate:raw.dividendGrowth / 100, annual_dilution_rate:raw.dilution / 100}; + } + function updateLabels() { + const tc = currencyName[fields.tradeCurrency.value], pc = currencyName[fields.profitCurrency.value]; + const targetYear = Number(fields.baseYear.value) + Number(fields.years.value); + q('price-label').textContent = '买入价格(' + tc + ')'; + q('profit-label').textContent = fields.baseYear.value + '年归母净利润(亿' + pc + ')'; + q('pe-label').textContent = (Number.isFinite(targetYear) ? targetYear + '年' : '') + '退出PE(倍)'; + q('dividend-label').textContent = '首年每股现金股息(' + tc + ')'; + q('fx-label').textContent = '1' + tc + '=多少' + pc; + q('growth-field').hidden = fields.mode.value === 'reverse'; + } + function render() { + updateLabels(); + try { + const raw = read(), p = normalize(raw), r = math.calculate(p), rev = r.required_growth_with_safety_margin; + const tc = currencyName[raw.tradeCurrency], pc = currencyName[raw.profitCurrency], endYear = raw.baseYear + raw.years; + const isReverse = raw.mode === 'reverse'; + let main, profit, exit; + if (isReverse) { + main = rev.required_growth_rate === null ? '无需最低增速' : format(rev.required_growth_rate * 100) + '%'; + profit = rev.required_growth_rate === null ? null : rev.required_terminal_profit_100m; + exit = rev.required_growth_rate === null ? null : rev.required_exit_price / raw.fx; + } else { + main = raw.mode === 'forward' ? format(r.holding_period_irr * 100) + '%' : format(r.max_purchase_price_with_safety_margin / raw.fx) + ' ' + tc; + profit = r.future_years[r.future_years.length-1].profit_100m; + exit = r.exit_price / raw.fx; + } + q('main-label').textContent = isReverse ? '所需归母利润年复合增长率' : raw.mode === 'forward' ? '预期税前年化IRR' : '含安全边际的最高买入价'; + q('terminal-label').textContent = endYear + '年' + (isReverse ? '所需' : '预计') + '归母利润'; + q('exit-label').textContent = isReverse ? '所需退出价' : '预计退出价'; + q('main-value').textContent = main; + q('terminal-value').textContent = profit === null ? '—' : format(profit) + ' 亿' + pc; + q('exit-value').textContent = exit === null ? '—' : format(exit) + ' ' + tc; + const baseline = r.required_growth.required_growth_rate; + q('result-detail').textContent = isReverse ? + (rev.required_growth_rate === null ? rev.message : '已计入安全边际 ' + format(raw.safetyMargin) + '%') + + ' · 不加安全边际时:' + (baseline === null ? '无需最低增速' : format(baseline * 100) + '%') : + '折扣前最高买入价 ' + format(r.max_purchase_price_at_target_return / raw.fx) + tc + + ' · 折扣后 ' + format(r.max_purchase_price_with_safety_margin / raw.fx) + tc + + ' · 当前价格隐含安全边际 ' + format(r.margin_of_safety_at_purchase * 100) + '%' + + ' · ' + (r.meets_safety_margin ? '满足' : '未满足') + '设定的 ' + format(raw.safetyMargin) + '%'; + if (isReverse && baseline !== null) { + const rows = math.schedule(p, baseline); + const verified = math.irr(p.price, rows.map(row => row.dividend_per_share), rows.at(-1).eps * p.exit_pe); + q('result-detail').textContent += ' · 无边际情景正向 IRR 验证:' + format(verified * 100) + '%'; + } + q('assumptions').textContent = (raw.dividend === 0 ? '不计分红' : '首年股息 ' + format(raw.dividend) + tc + ',每股股息年增 ' + format(raw.dividendGrowth) + '%') + ' · 股本年变化 ' + format(raw.dilution) + '% · 税费前 · 汇率固定'; + q('error').hidden = true; q('results').hidden = false; + root.dataset.status = 'ready'; + } catch (error) { + q('error').textContent = error.message || '参数无效'; q('error').hidden = false; q('results').hidden = true; + root.dataset.status = 'invalid'; + } + } + function save() { + // Save raw input, including incomplete edits, so navigation and resize never lose it. + const parameters = Object.fromEntries(Object.entries(fields).map(([key, field]) => [key, field.value])); + const saved = {version: 1, parameters, advanced: q('advanced').open}; + memoryState = saved; + try { + localStorage.setItem(STORAGE_KEY, JSON.stringify(saved)); + q('save-status').textContent = '参数已自动保存在本机浏览器'; + } catch { + q('save-status').textContent = '浏览器存储不可用,参数仅在本次页面中保留'; + } + } + let saved = memoryState; + if (!saved) { + try { saved = JSON.parse(localStorage.getItem(STORAGE_KEY)); } catch { /* Storage may be unavailable. */ } + } + const values = {...defaults, ...(saved?.version === 1 ? saved.parameters : {})}; + for (const [key, field] of Object.entries(fields)) field.value = values[key]; + q('advanced').open = Boolean(saved?.advanced); + render(); + root.addEventListener('input', () => { save(); render(); }); + root.addEventListener('change', () => { save(); render(); }); + q('advanced').addEventListener('toggle', save); + q('reset').addEventListener('click', () => { + for (const [key, field] of Object.entries(fields)) field.value = defaults[key]; + save(); + render(); + }); +} diff --git a/js/tools/stock-return-math.js b/js/tools/stock-return-math.js new file mode 100644 index 0000000..481afb4 --- /dev/null +++ b/js/tools/stock-return-math.js @@ -0,0 +1,71 @@ +/* Mirrors scripts/valuation.py. All amounts reaching the engine use one currency. */ + function num(x, name, positive) { + if (typeof x !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(x) || (positive && x <= 0)) throw new Error(name + '必须为' + (positive ? '正数' : '有限数值')); + return x; + } + function validate(p) { + ['price', 'base_profit_100m', 'shares_100m', 'exit_pe'].forEach(k => num(p[k], k, true)); + if (!Number.isInteger(p.years) || p.years < 1 || p.years > 30) throw new Error('持有年限须为1—30年的整数'); + if (!Number.isInteger(p.base_year) || p.base_year < 1900 || p.base_year > 2200) throw new Error('基期年份须为1900—2200的整数'); + ['growth_rate', 'target_return', 'dividend_growth_rate', 'annual_dilution_rate'].forEach(k => { + const x = num(p[k], k, false); + if (x <= -1 || x > 10) throw new Error('增长率和收益率须大于−100%且不超过1000%'); + }); + if (num(p.annual_dividend_per_share, '首年股息', false) < 0) throw new Error('首年股息不能为负'); + const margin = num(p.safety_margin === undefined ? 0 : p.safety_margin, '安全边际', false); + if (margin < 0 || margin >= 1) throw new Error('安全边际须大于等于0%且小于100%'); + } + function schedule(p, growth) { + return Array.from({length: p.years}, (_, i) => { + const t = i + 1, profit = p.base_profit_100m * (1 + growth) ** t; + const shares = p.shares_100m * (1 + p.annual_dilution_rate) ** t; + return {year: p.base_year + t, profit_100m: profit, shares_100m: shares, eps: profit / shares, + dividend_per_share: p.annual_dividend_per_share * (1 + p.dividend_growth_rate) ** i}; + }); + } + function pv(rate, dividends, exit) { + return dividends.reduce((s, d, i) => s + d / (1 + rate) ** (i + 1), 0) + exit / (1 + rate) ** dividends.length; + } + function irr(price, dividends, exit) { + let low = -.999999999, high = 10; + if (pv(high, dividends, exit) > price) throw new Error('回报率超过模型上限1000%'); + for (let i = 0; i < 150; i++) { + const m = (low + high) / 2; + if (pv(m, dividends, exit) > price) low = m; else high = m; + } + return (low + high) / 2; + } + function calculate(p) { + validate(p); + const rows = schedule(p, p.growth_rate), last = rows[rows.length - 1]; + const dividends = rows.map(x => x.dividend_per_share), exit = last.eps * p.exit_pe; + const pvDiv = dividends.reduce((s, d, i) => s + d / (1 + p.target_return) ** (i + 1), 0); + function reverseForPrice(price) { + const requiredExit = (price - pvDiv) * (1 + p.target_return) ** p.years; + const requiredProfit = requiredExit * last.shares_100m / p.exit_pe; + return requiredExit <= 0 ? {required_growth_rate: null, message: '股息现值已覆盖所需现值,无最低退出盈利要求。'} : { + required_growth_rate: (requiredProfit / p.base_profit_100m) ** (1 / p.years) - 1, + required_terminal_profit_100m: requiredProfit, required_terminal_eps: requiredProfit / last.shares_100m, + required_exit_price: requiredExit, pv_dividends_per_share: pvDiv + }; + } + const margin = p.safety_margin === undefined ? 0 : p.safety_margin; + const reverse = reverseForPrice(p.price), buffered = reverseForPrice(p.price / (1-margin)); + const maxPrice = pv(p.target_return, dividends, exit), marginPrice = maxPrice * (1-margin); + const result = {base_eps: p.base_profit_100m / p.shares_100m, base_pe: p.price * p.shares_100m / p.base_profit_100m, + future_years: rows, exit_price: exit, holding_period_irr: irr(p.price, dividends, exit), + required_growth: reverse, required_growth_with_safety_margin: buffered, + max_purchase_price_at_target_return: maxPrice, max_purchase_price_with_safety_margin: marginPrice, + margin_of_safety_at_purchase: 1-p.price/maxPrice, meets_safety_margin: p.price <= marginPrice + 1e-12*maxPrice}; + [result.base_pe, result.exit_price, result.holding_period_irr, result.max_purchase_price_at_target_return, + ...rows.flatMap(x => [x.profit_100m, x.shares_100m, x.eps, x.dividend_per_share])].forEach(x => { + if (!Number.isFinite(x)) throw new Error('计算超出有效数值范围,请缩小参数'); + }); + for (const r of [reverse, buffered]) { + if (r.required_growth_rate !== null && ![r.required_growth_rate, r.required_terminal_profit_100m, + r.required_exit_price, r.required_terminal_eps].every(Number.isFinite)) throw new Error('无法反推增长率,请缩小参数'); + } + return result; + } + +export { calculate, validate, schedule, pv, irr }; diff --git a/js/ui.js b/js/ui.js index 46f9b63..13a3f62 100644 --- a/js/ui.js +++ b/js/ui.js @@ -62,13 +62,14 @@ export function createAppShell(root, { onReload }) { cartBar.hidden = true; root.append(layout, reloadButton, cartBar); - return { companyNav, tabs, params, cards, chartNav, cartBar }; + return { layout, companyNav, tabs, params, cards, chartNav, cartBar }; } export function renderCompanies(container, companies, activeCompanyId, onSelect) { container.replaceChildren(element('h2', 'sidebar-title', '公司')); const list = element('div', 'company-list'); companies.forEach((company) => { + if (company.kind === 'tools') list.append(element('h2', 'sidebar-title tools-title', '工具')); list.append(button(company.name, { active: company.id === activeCompanyId, onClick: () => onSelect(company.id), diff --git a/package.json b/package.json index b7b0b1b..d04f9eb 100644 --- a/package.json +++ b/package.json @@ -9,7 +9,8 @@ "dev": "vite", "build": "vite build", "preview": "vite preview", - "test": "node test/regress.mjs", + "test": "node test/regress.mjs && npm run test:valuation", + "test:valuation": "node test/stock_return_valuation.mjs && node test/dcf_valuation.mjs && node test/dcf_crosscheck.mjs", "test:param": "node test/sweet_spot_param.mjs" }, "keywords": [ diff --git a/test/dcf_crosscheck.mjs b/test/dcf_crosscheck.mjs new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1280106 --- /dev/null +++ b/test/dcf_crosscheck.mjs @@ -0,0 +1,89 @@ +import assert from 'node:assert/strict'; +import { calculateDCFCrosscheck } from '../js/tools/dcf-crosscheck-math.js'; +import { calculate as calculateReturn } from '../js/tools/stock-return-math.js'; +const dcf = {basis: 'fcfe', fcf: 100, year: 2026, rate: .1, terminal: .02, shares: 10, + debt: 100, assets: 0, minority: 0, margin: .2, + stages: [{years: 3, growth: .12}, {years: 4, growth: .08}, {years: 3, growth: .04}]}; +const assumptions = {price: 138, profitMode: 'manual', profit: 125, conversion: .8, + profitGrowth: .08, target: .13, years: 5, peLow: 9, pe: 12, peHigh: 15, + dividend: 0, dividendGrowth: 0, dilution: 0}; +const near = (a, b) => assert.ok(Math.abs(a - b) <= 1e-8 * Math.max(1, Math.abs(b)), `${a} ≠ ${b}`); +const result = calculateDCFCrosscheck(dcf, assumptions); +assert.equal(result.dcf.perShare.toFixed(2), '203.46'); +assert.equal(result.rows.length, 2); +for (const row of result.rows) { + for (const scenario of row.scenarios) { + const standalone = calculateReturn({base_year: dcf.year, base_profit_100m: assumptions.profit, + shares_100m: dcf.shares, price: row.price, years: 5, exit_pe: scenario.pe, growth_rate: .08, + target_return: .13, annual_dividend_per_share: 0, dividend_growth_rate: 0, annual_dilution_rate: 0, safety_margin: dcf.margin}); + near(scenario.irr, standalone.holding_period_irr); + near(scenario.requiredGrowth, standalone.required_growth_with_safety_margin.required_growth_rate); + near(scenario.requiredGrowthWithoutMargin, standalone.required_growth.required_growth_rate); + near(scenario.maxPrice, standalone.max_purchase_price_at_target_return); + near(scenario.maxPriceWithMargin, standalone.max_purchase_price_with_safety_margin); + } +} +assert.equal(result.dcfCondition, true); +assert.equal(result.returnCondition, false); +near(result.returnCeiling, 125 / 10 * 1.08 ** 5 * 12 / 1.13 ** 5 * .8); +near(result.jointCeiling, Math.min(result.dcf.entryPrice, result.returnCeiling)); +// Safety margin changes the growth hurdle and price ceiling, while actual IRR stays unchanged. +const noMargin = calculateDCFCrosscheck({...dcf, margin: 0}, assumptions); +near(result.returnCeiling, noMargin.returnCeiling * .8); +near(result.rows[0].base.irr, noMargin.rows[0].base.irr); +near(result.rows[0].base.requiredGrowthWithoutMargin, noMargin.rows[0].base.requiredGrowth); +assert.ok(result.rows[0].base.requiredGrowth > noMargin.rows[0].base.requiredGrowth); +const estimated = calculateDCFCrosscheck(dcf, {...assumptions, profitMode: 'estimate', profit: NaN}); +near(estimated.profit, 125); +near(estimated.rows[0].base.irr, result.rows[0].base.irr); +const changedCash = calculateDCFCrosscheck({...dcf, fcf: 120}, assumptions); +near(changedCash.profit, 125); +near(changedCash.rows[0].base.irr, result.rows[0].base.irr); +assert.notEqual(changedCash.dcf.perShare, result.dcf.perShare); +near(calculateDCFCrosscheck({...dcf, fcf: 120}, {...assumptions, profitMode: 'estimate'}).profit, 150); +const distribution = calculateDCFCrosscheck(dcf, {...assumptions, dividend: 100}); +assert.equal(distribution.rows[0].base.requiredGrowth, null); +assert.equal(distribution.growthGap, null); +assert.equal(calculateDCFCrosscheck(dcf, {...assumptions, profitGrowth: .2}).returnCondition, true); +// A scenario can reach the actual IRR target yet fail the requested price safety margin. +const targetOnly = calculateDCFCrosscheck(dcf, {...assumptions, price: 110}); +assert.equal(targetOnly.rows[0].base.meetsTarget, true); +assert.equal(targetOnly.returnCondition, false); +// End-to-end round trips: DCF forward price -> standalone reverse growth -> DCF price. +// Exercise zero/nonzero margins, payouts, dilution, negative growth and long holdings. +for (const patch of [{}, {dividend: 2, dividendGrowth: .03, dilution: .02}, + {profitGrowth: -.08, dilution: -.03, years: 3}, {years: 30}, {target: -.1}]) { + for (const margin of [0, .2, .5]) { + const a = {...assumptions, ...patch}; + const p = {...dcf, margin}; + const cross = calculateDCFCrosscheck(p, a); + const input = {base_year: p.year, base_profit_100m: a.profit, shares_100m: p.shares, + price: cross.returnCeiling, years: a.years, exit_pe: a.pe, growth_rate: a.profitGrowth, + target_return: a.target, annual_dividend_per_share: a.dividend, + dividend_growth_rate: a.dividendGrowth, annual_dilution_rate: a.dilution, safety_margin: margin}; + const reversed = calculateReturn(input); + near(reversed.required_growth_with_safety_margin.required_growth_rate, a.profitGrowth); + near(reversed.max_purchase_price_with_safety_margin, cross.returnCeiling); + const atCeiling = calculateDCFCrosscheck(p, {...a, price: cross.returnCeiling}); + near(atCeiling.rows[0].base.requiredGrowth, a.profitGrowth); + assert.equal(atCeiling.returnCondition, true); + const fromReverse = calculateDCFCrosscheck(p, {...a, profitGrowth: reversed.required_growth_with_safety_margin.required_growth_rate}); + near(fromReverse.returnCeiling, cross.returnCeiling); + } +} +// Dividends may cover the actual price but not the price buffered by the safety margin. +const dividendCovered = calculateDCFCrosscheck(dcf, {...assumptions, dividend: 40}); +assert.equal(dividendCovered.rows[0].base.requiredGrowthWithoutMargin, null); +assert.notEqual(dividendCovered.rows[0].base.requiredGrowth, null); +const diluted = calculateDCFCrosscheck(dcf, {...assumptions, dilution: .02, dividend: 2, dividendGrowth: .03}); +assert.ok(diluted.rows.every(row => row.scenarios.every(scenario => Number.isFinite(scenario.irr)))); +assert.throws(() => calculateDCFCrosscheck({...dcf, basis: 'fcff'}, {...assumptions, profitMode: 'estimate'})); +assert.throws(() => calculateDCFCrosscheck({...dcf, basis: 'fcff', debt: 1e9}, assumptions)); +for (const patch of [{profit: 0}, {profitMode: 'invalid'}, {price: 0}, {profitGrowth: -1}, {years: 0}, + {years: 3.5}, {target: -1}, {peLow: 15}, {peHigh: 10}, {pe: 0}, {dividend: -1}, {dilution: -1}]) { + assert.throws(() => calculateDCFCrosscheck(dcf, {...assumptions, ...patch})); +} +for (const conversion of [0, -1, Infinity, NaN]) { + assert.throws(() => calculateDCFCrosscheck(dcf, {...assumptions, profitMode: 'estimate', conversion})); +} +console.log('✓ DCF 与收益反推的含边际增速一致、价格/增速往返、实际 IRR、利润来源及边界校验'); diff --git a/test/dcf_valuation.mjs b/test/dcf_valuation.mjs new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b0e4af5 --- /dev/null +++ b/test/dcf_valuation.mjs @@ -0,0 +1,64 @@ +import assert from 'node:assert/strict'; +import { calculateDCF } from '../js/tools/dcf-math.js'; +const base = {basis: 'fcff', fcf: 100, year: 2026, rate: .1, terminal: .02, shares: 10, + debt: 100, assets: 0, minority: 0, margin: .2, + stages: [{years: 3, growth: .12}, {years: 4, growth: .08}, {years: 3, growth: .04}]}; +const near = (actual, expected) => assert.ok(Math.abs(actual - expected) <= 1e-8 * Math.max(1, Math.abs(expected)), `${actual} ≠ ${expected}`); +const r = calculateDCF(base); +assert.equal(r.rows.length, 10); +near(r.rows[0].cash, 112); +near(r.rows[3].cash, 100 * 1.12 ** 3 * 1.08); +near(r.rows.at(-1).cash, 100 * 1.12 ** 3 * 1.08 ** 4 * 1.04 ** 3); +near(r.forecastPV, r.rows.reduce((sum, row) => sum + row.cash / 1.1 ** (row.year - base.year), 0)); +near(r.terminalPV, r.rows.at(-1).cash * 1.02 / .08 / 1.1 ** 10); +near(r.equityValue, r.operatingValue - 100); +near(r.perShare, r.equityValue / 10); +near(r.entryPrice, r.perShare * .8); +// Each company's share count changes per-share valuation, never the company's total DCF. +const diluted = calculateDCF({...base, shares: 20}); +near(diluted.equityValue, r.equityValue); +near(diluted.perShare, r.perShare / 2); +near(diluted.entryPrice, r.entryPrice / 2); +for (const years of [1, 10, 30]) { + near(calculateDCF({...base, terminal: 0, stages: [{years, growth: 0}]}).operatingValue, 1000); + near(calculateDCF({...base, stages: [{years, growth: .02}]}).operatingValue, 1275); +} +const fcfe = calculateDCF({...base, basis: 'fcfe', debt: NaN, assets: NaN, minority: NaN}); +near(fcfe.equityValue, r.operatingValue); +near(fcfe.adjustment, 0); +const adjusted = calculateDCF({...base, debt: -50, assets: 20, minority: 10}); +near(adjusted.equityValue, r.operatingValue + 60); +const noEquity = calculateDCF({...base, debt: 1e6}); +assert.ok(noEquity.equityValue < 0); +const shrinking = calculateDCF({...base, stages: [{years: 10, growth: -.05}]}); +assert.ok(shrinking.rows.at(-1).cash < 100); +for (const patch of [{shares: 0}, {shares: -1}, {shares: NaN}, {fcf: 0}, {fcf: Infinity}, {year: 2026.5}, + {basis: 'invalid'}, {terminal: .1}, {terminal: -1}, {rate: -1}, {margin: 1}, {margin: -.1}, + {stages: []}, {stages: [{years: 31, growth: .1}]}, {stages: [{years: 1.5, growth: .1}]}, + {stages: [{years: 1, growth: -1}]}, {stages: [{years: 1, growth: Infinity}]}, {debt: NaN}, + {stages: [{years: 30, growth: 1e300}]}]) assert.throws(() => calculateDCF({...base, ...patch})); +console.log('✓ DCF 分段复利、永续现金流、折现时点、股权调整、公司股本换算及无效输入'); + +// Price-zone thresholds are inclusive at both ends of the fair band. +const { calculateDCFPriceRange, classifyDCFPrice } = await import('../js/tools/dcf-math.js'); +const { buildDCFPriceOption } = await import('../js/tools/dcf-price-chart.js'); +const range = calculateDCFPriceRange({perShare: 100, margin: .2, premium: .2}); +assert.deepEqual(range, {low: 80, high: 120, perShare: 100}); +for (const [price, zone] of [[79.99, '低估'], [80, '合理'], [100, '合理'], [120, '合理'], [120.01, '高估']]) { + assert.equal(classifyDCFPrice(price, range).zone, zone); +} +near(classifyDCFPrice(80, range).deviation, -.2); +const pointRange = calculateDCFPriceRange({perShare: 100, margin: 0, premium: 0}); +assert.equal(classifyDCFPrice(100, pointRange).zone, '合理'); +for (const patch of [{perShare: 0}, {perShare: -1}, {perShare: NaN}, {margin: -.1}, {margin: 1}, {premium: -.1}, {premium: Infinity}]) { + assert.throws(() => calculateDCFPriceRange({perShare: 100, margin: .2, premium: .2, ...patch})); +} +for (const price of [0, -1, NaN, Infinity]) assert.throws(() => classifyDCFPrice(price, range)); +const colors = {ink:'#333', muted:'#777', line:'#eee', paper:'#fff', accent:'#654', low:'#ded', fair:'#eed', high:'#edd'}; +const unquoted = buildDCFPriceOption({range, colors, width: 320}); +assert.equal(unquoted.series.some(series => series.type === 'scatter'), false); +const quoted = buildDCFPriceOption({range, price: 200, colors, width: 320}); +assert.ok(quoted.xAxis.max > 200); +assert.deepEqual(quoted.series.at(-1).data, [[200, 0]]); +near(quoted.series.slice(0, 3).reduce((sum, series) => sum + series.data[0], 0), quoted.xAxis.max); +console.log('✓ DCF 低估/合理/高估边界、折溢价、可选股价及图表标记'); diff --git a/test/stock_return_valuation.mjs b/test/stock_return_valuation.mjs new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7166f02 --- /dev/null +++ b/test/stock_return_valuation.mjs @@ -0,0 +1,40 @@ +import assert from 'node:assert/strict'; +import { calculate } from '../js/tools/stock-return-math.js'; + +const base = {price: 220, base_profit_100m: 860, shares_100m: 46.27, exit_pe: 13, + years: 3, base_year: 2026, target_return: .13, growth_rate: .1, + safety_margin: 0, annual_dividend_per_share: 0, dividend_growth_rate: 0, annual_dilution_rate: 0}; +const near = (actual, expected, tolerance = 1e-8) => assert.ok(Math.abs(actual - expected) < tolerance, `${actual} ≠ ${expected}`); +const example = calculate(base); +near(example.required_growth.required_growth_rate, .0952, .0001); +near(example.required_growth.required_exit_price, 317.43734); +near(example.required_growth.required_terminal_profit_100m, 317.43734 * 46.27 / 13); + +// Reverse/forward cash-flow consistency with dividends, dilution, negative rates and FX-normalized inputs. +for (const patch of [{}, {annual_dividend_per_share: 9.3, dividend_growth_rate: .08}, + {annual_dilution_rate: .02}, {annual_dilution_rate: -.03, growth_rate: -.08}, + {years: 5, target_return: .15}, {target_return: -.15}, + {price: 398 * .85619, annual_dividend_per_share: 5.3 * .85619, base_profit_100m: 2300, shares_100m: 90.93, exit_pe: 15}]) { + for (const safety_margin of [0, .2, .5]) { + const input = {...base, ...patch, safety_margin}; + const r = calculate(input); + const required = r.required_growth_with_safety_margin.required_growth_rate; + const forward = calculate({...input, growth_rate: required}); + near(forward.max_purchase_price_with_safety_margin, input.price); + near(forward.margin_of_safety_at_purchase, safety_margin); + near(r.max_purchase_price_with_safety_margin, r.max_purchase_price_at_target_return * (1 - safety_margin)); + near(calculate({...input, safety_margin: 0}).holding_period_irr, r.holding_period_irr); + const noMargin = calculate({...input, growth_rate: r.required_growth.required_growth_rate}); + near(noMargin.holding_period_irr, input.target_return); + } +} +const covered = calculate({...base, annual_dividend_per_share: 100, safety_margin: .5}); +assert.equal(covered.required_growth.required_growth_rate, null); +assert.notEqual(covered.required_growth_with_safety_margin.required_growth_rate, null); +assert.equal(calculate({...base, annual_dividend_per_share: 500}).required_growth_with_safety_margin.required_growth_rate, null); +for (const patch of [{price: 0}, {base_profit_100m: -1}, {shares_100m: 0}, {exit_pe: 0}, + {years: 0}, {years: 3.2}, {years: 31}, {target_return: -1}, {annual_dilution_rate: -1}, + {annual_dividend_per_share: -2}, {safety_margin: -1}, {safety_margin: 1}, {price: Infinity}]) { + assert.throws(() => calculate({...base, ...patch})); +} +console.log('✓ 估值示例、现金流反向/正向验证、安全边际、多币种、分红、摊薄及边界条件');